Three NASCAR Prop Bets for Sunday’s TicketGuardian 500 at Phoenix
This weekend we get the TicketGuardian 500 at the newly-named ISM Raceway (formerly Phoenix Raceway and Phoenix International Raceway). The race is at 3:30 pm ET. (Also, don’t get screwed over by daylight saving time.)
A one-mile tri-oval, ISM is one of just four short flat tracks on the NASCAR circuit.
- ISM Raceway
- Richmond Raceway
- Martinsville Speedway
- New Hampshire Motor Speedway
Whereas last week’s race at Las Vegas Motor Speedway was pretty much a standard affair, this week’s race — the first flat-track event of the year — will likely have more drama. Due to the low banking, drivers must exercise more than the typical amount of caution in the corners when turning. As a result, we tend to see more single-file racing as drivers enter the corner, which makes passing more difficult. On top of that, ISM (relative to longer tracks) is especially tough on drivers who start near the back of the field, as they have a greater likelihood of going down a lap when they pit. As a result, the machine learning statistical models and similarity scores at RotoViz this week rely heavily on track-type history as well as starting position, final practice times, and driver rating over the past half year.
For more information on the track and drivers as well as some daily fantasy NASCAR insight, check out the two podcasts I recorded this week with Nick Giffen (RotoDoc) of RotoViz.
When sorting through the head-to-head driver props for Arizona, I’ve opted to focus most on projected finishing positions (as well track-type history and practice times) in the RotoViz tools. I’ve pulled all the odds from 5dimes, but be sure to shop around.
Here are three props that have caught my eye.