For the second week in a row, the NASCAR Cup Series race is at one of the larger tracks on the circuit. A two-mile D-shaped tri-oval, Michigan International Speedway typically features high speeds (in excess of 200 mph), thanks to the 18-degree banking in the corners, extended straightaways and wide surface.

Because of the high speeds, passing at Michigan is usually difficult, but this week NASCAR is using a new Goodyear package intended to create more tire wear, which in turn should make the driving more competitive. While increasing horsepower and minimizing drag are crucial at Michigan, many teams might also employ alternate fuel and tire strategies to gain an edge. As a result, this race could have more randomness than we normally see at a nonrestrictor plate event.

 

For this race, here are the main metrics I’m considering:

  • Projected finishing position
  • Starting position
  • Practice speed
  • Year-to-date performance
  • Large oval history
  • Michigan history

Per usual, I rely on the machine learning statistical models and similarity scores at RotoViz, created by Nick Giffen (RotoDoc).

I’ve pulled all the odds from 5Dimes, but be sure to shop around.

There are a LOT of exploitable props this week. I’m highlighting three in this piece, but check out the RotoViz model for more actionable insight.

Year-to-date performance: 17-18, 6.5% return on investment, +2.27 units

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Credit:

Matthew O’Haren-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Kyle Larson