For the first time all season, this week NASCAR drivers will make some right turns! We have our first road-course race of the year at Sonoma Raceway. Road-course racing is unlike anything else on the NASCAR circuit. Because the tracks are long and driving is (relatively) slow, it’s possible for cars to pit without losing a lap, which means there is more room for strategy (and thus randomness). We should expect an exciting event with multiple race-altering incidents.


For this race, here are the main metrics I’m considering:

  • Projected finishing position
  • Starting position
  • Practice speed
  • Year-to-date performance
  • Road-course history
  • Sonoma history

Per usual, I rely on the machine learning statistical models and similarity scores at RotoViz, created by Nick Giffen (RotoDoc).

I’ve pulled all the odds from 5Dimes, but be sure to shop around.

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Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Jimmie Johnson

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