NASCAR Kansas Betting Odds, Picks: Three Drivers to Bet for the Hollywood Casino 400

Oct 20, 2019 10:30 AM EDT
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Marvin Gentry-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Kyle Busch.

Last weekend the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series (MENCS) was at one of its two Superspeedway tracks, where long-shot winners happen frequently. We identified Ryan Blaney as a value play despite his 20-1 odds, and he delivered, securing his place among the final eight drivers in the MENCS playoffs.

This week, we’re back to the series’ bread and butter, the 1.5-mile track. The list of 1.5-mile winners in 2019 is mostly a who’s who of NASCAR:

  • Atlanta*: Brad Keselowski
  • Las Vegas 1: Joey Logano
  • Texas: Denny Hamlin
  • Kansas 1: Keselowski
  • Charlotte: Martin Truex, Jr.
  • Chicagoland: Alex Bowman
  • Kentucky: Kurt Busch
  • Las Vegas 2: Truex, Jr.

(*Note: Atlanta was the only 1.5-mile track run without aero-ducts, and also is the only 1.5-mile track with incredibly high tire wear. For the rest of this article, I will not be including Atlanta when I refer to 1.5-mile tracks.)

Every single 1.5-mile winner made the MENCS playoffs, while all but Kurt Busch are still alive in the playoffs. Unless something incredible happens, we’re looking at a race for the win among the favorites. To find the value plays among this group, I’ll rely on my statistical model. The top factors in my model for this weekend’s race are:

  • Year-to-date driver rating
  • Average green flag speed at 1.5-mile aero-duct tracks
  • Driver rating over the last eight Kansas races
  • Final practice 10-lap average

I’ll also use practice data over 15 consecutive laps and longer to manually tweak model results. Since there isn’t historical data for these metrics, they can’t be part of the model, but they will give us an idea of who is fast over a longer race run.

We’re on a good run with Blaney last week and Larson two weeks ago at Dover, as well as pegging Martin Truex, Jr. at 14-1 odds at the last 1.5-mile race at Las Vegas. Let’s see if we can continue the run with a trio of playoff drivers at Kansas.

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