As I mentioned in this piece, according to, NBA teams with home court leading 3-2 have historically gone 174-15 (92.1%) in the series. And yet the Rockets are growing dogs to win the Western Conference Finals thanks to Chris Paul’s injury that will at least keep him out of Game 6. As Locky mentioned here, Games 3 and 4 in Golden State closed at 8 and 7.5, which means CP3’s value to the spread is roughly 3-4 points. That feels about right, and his on-court impact so far in this series can’t be overstated.

Per, with CP3 on the floor this season, the Rockets have scored a ridiculous 121.0 points per 100 possessions. For reference, the Warriors led the NBA with a mark of 112.3. Houston was right behind at 112.2. The all-time record is a tie between the 1986-87 Los Angeles Lakers and the 2016-17 Golden State Warriors, who both scored 115.6/100. That’s right: When Paul has been on the floor this year, the Rockets have literally been historically great on offense. Even in the playoffs, they’ve been great with him, scoring 118.0/100.


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Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: James Harden and Eric Gordon

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