The Indiana Pacers (3-3) and Oklahoma City Thunder (3-3) will face off in a winner-take all Game 7 to close out the NBA Finals tonight. Tipoff is set for 8:00 p.m. ET at the Paycom Center in Oklahoma City. The game will broadcast live on ABC.
The Thunder are 7-point favorites over the Pacers on the spread (Thunder -7), with the over/under set at 214.5 total points. Oklahoma City is a -270 favorite to win outright, while Indiana is +220 to pull off the upset.
The Pacers’ wild, unpredictable, audacious playoff run could end with the franchise’s first-ever NBA title. They just have to win one more game. The Thunder’s dominant, seemingly unstoppable season could culminate with the franchise’s first Oklahoman championship. They also, just have to win one more game.
One game: Legacy, Legend, Championship. And perhaps some profit for those who enjoy wagering.Let's get into my Pacers vs. Thunder predictions and NBA picks for Sunday, June 22.
Pacers vs. Thunder Picks, Prediction for NBA Finals Game 7
My Pacers vs. Thunder Game 7 best bet is Indiana moneyline, with the best odds currently available at BetMGM. But as always, make sure to shop for the best line using our live NBA odds page.
My Pick: Pacers Moneyline (+220)
Pacers vs. Thunder Odds for Sunday, June 22
| Pacers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -110 | 214.5 -110o / -110u | +220 |
| Thunder Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -110 | 214.5 -110o / -110u | -270 |
- Pacers vs. Thunder spread: Thunder -7
- Pacers vs. Thunder over/under: 214.5 total points
- Pacers vs. Thunder moneyline: Pacers +220, Thunder -270
- Pacers vs. Thunder best bet: Pacers Moneyline (+220)
Pacers vs. Thunder NBA Finals Game 7 Preview
This line for Game 7 originally opened at Thunder -9, a half-point lower than the line for the series opener (Thunder -9.5). Instantly, the market took significant Pacers money that moved the line to -8 and kept taking money.
Now, the Thunder are all the way down at -7 at some books. That is 4.5 points lower than the closing line for the second matchup of Thunder -11.5.
Notably, money started coming back in on Oklahoma City on Saturday, but not enough to move the line back.
It’s very possible that the Thunder could take late money, especially right before tipoff to move the line in their direction. If you like Oklahoma City, I’d recommend buying at -7 if it’s available when you read this.
I don’t think there’s a wrong way to bet this, and I can make a strong case for either side.
The strongest case for the Thunder is the history backing home teams and the way Oklahoma City has played at home.
The Thunder are 10-2 at home in the playoffs, and when they’ve won, they’ve won by an average of 25 points and covered by more than 14.8 points per game.
Here are the Game 7 home team trends since 2003, when we have ATS data going back to.
- Home teams in Game 7s overall since 2003 are 47-25 SU and 37-35 ATS. When those teams win, they are 37-10 ATS.
- Home favorites of more than a possession (-4.5) are 40-10 SU and 31-19 ATS.
- Home 1-seeds are 14-7 SU, but just 11-10 ATS.
- Home teams in Game 7s of the Finals are 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS. The three winning teams all covered. If we expand to the final two rounds of the playoffs, home teams are 6-6 SU and 5-7 ATS.
- Teams at home in Game 7 in the conference finals or Finals, coming off a Game 6 loss, are just 2-4 SU and 2-4 ATS.
- Teams that lost Game 6 by double digits and then return home for Game 7 are 16-13 SU but 11-18 ATS.
The thinking is that the Thunder are the better team. That’s why they’re such a heavy favorite. They’re dominant at home (unless they’re not), and when they win, they cover by margin.
The Pacers defended their home court in their last stand, and the Thunder, undefeated straight up and 4-2 against the spread after a loss in these playoffs, will bounce back and win.
No team has beaten Oklahoma City twice in a row in these playoffs, and outside of a meaningless April game after the 1-seed was secure, no one has done it to a fully healthy Thunder team all season.
I think that’s a perfectly valid handicap. I’m betting Pacers.
There is simply no better team equipped to confound trends, defy history, and upset the Thunder in this spot. The Pacers are made of entirely different stuff.
Much of it is that Indiana is not strong enough to look the overwhelming, daunting challenge in the eye of the storm in front and make them blink, but instead, they are able to simply walk through the storm without noticing they’re wet.
In their first playoff run, the Pacers walked into Madison Square Garden last year and won Game 7 before all the injuries for the Knicks set in. They took it to them.
The Pacers have consistently walked into playoff games where people expected them to get waxed, but instead hung in and walked out with a victory. They are art thieves, waltzing in during the middle of the day and calmly walking out with a Picasso.
You have to be made of certain stuff to win a game like this, and the Pacers have screamed at us that they are made of that material for two straight playoff runs. But that’s all narrative, all feeling. Here’s the basketball side.
The Pacers threw the Thunder for a loop defensively by backing off their pressure and reducing their pick-up points last game.
The Thunder can counter-adjust here, but it’s difficult to deal with not knowing when or where the Pacers’ defense is going to pressure them.
The Pacers have still not thrown a zone at Oklahoma City. Being able to save it for this moment is a big card for both teams to play, but Indiana, in particular, with how shaky the Thunder's shooters can become.
Tyrese Haliburton is likely to play better with a few more days of treatment, even as his calf injury leaves him far short of even 80 percent.
Game 7s are most often won by the home team because A.) the home team is usually better, and B.) home teams make more shots.
If this game is not about turnovers, points off turnovers, offensive rebounds, or anything but just halfcourt make-a-shot basketball, who do you want?
The Pacers with the best eFG% in the playoffs, or the Thunder, a team whose shooters have consistently tightened up?
The over/under for Game 7 is much easier to handicap. But ultimately, I will be staying away from the total.
Every signal says “under.” It’s just whether you think the move is too much.
This opened 214.5, a full 15 points lower than the opening line for the first matchup of the series.
The under has taken sharp action via our Pro Tools, but the public is on the over, keeping this line right around there, with a few 215s in the market.
The trends are not subtle here.
- The under in Game 7s overall since 2003 is 44-28 (61%).
- The under in Game 7s in the conference finals or Finals is 11-1.
- The under in Game 7s of the Finals is 4-0.
- When the total drops by more than six points from Game 6, as it has here, the under is still 6-1.
Based on that last trend, it would seem the market move is appropriate. The books simply cannot adjust enough.
But something gives me pause. The total in Game 7 of the Knicks-Pacers series last year was 206.5. The Pacers won 130-109.
It seems very likely that whoever wins this game puts up points. Indiana is unlikely to win a 91-88 game. The Thunder are more likely to win that game, but if their defense is playing that well, it probably means run-outs for easy scores.
You should take the side you like’s team total over, or the other side’s team total under. In 43 of 72 Game 7 wins, the winning team’s team total has gone over. In 54 of the 72 Game 7 wins, the losing team’s team total has gone under.
I do not want to bet this. I don’t blame you if you just go with the nice, easy, obvious under. All the data supports it, but I’m wary of it.
Pacers vs. Thunder Betting Predictions for NBA Finals Game 7
Pacers Moneyline (+220)
Indiana has done enough, shown enough, and proven enough for this line to be shorter.
Teams playing in a road Game 7 that average a better field goal percentage than their opponents, like Indiana, have an average margin in such games of -5.9.
That translates to a moneyline odds line of +196 for Indiana.
At +240, I’m getting 44 cents of value under that simple parameter.
It’s enough to back the Pacers in the biggest game of their lives.
Aaron Nesmith Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made (-150)
Nesmith has cleared this in three straight and has gotten both more comfortable and better looks as the series has gone on.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 1.5 Three-Pointers Made (+105)
SGA has gone over this once in this series: Game 1.
The Pacers are excellent at keeping him away from his step-back and have continued to send more help at him as this series has progressed to prevent the space he needs for a shot he doesn’t like or hit at a high clip.
Myles Turner Under 4.5 Rebounds (-135)
Turner has gone under this line in all but two games in this series.
If I’m right that there’s more scoring than expected, his rebound opportunities go down.
Pacers vs. Thunder NBA Finals Game 7 Best Bets
- Pacers Moneyline (+220)
- Aaron Nesmith Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made (-150)
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 1.5 Three-Pointers Made (-125)
- Myles Turner Under 4.5 Rebounds (+105)
Pacers vs. Thunder Betting Trends
