Thank God, it’s over.
The longest NBA trade saga for a 37-year-old player in NBA history is finally done as the Houston Rockets traded Jalen Green, Dillon Brooks, the 10th overall pick in the 2025 draft, and five second-round picks for future Hall of Famer Kevin Durant from the Phoenix Suns.
Huge news! Epic news! How should you bet it?
Suns Trade Kevin Durant to Rockets: Breakdown, Analysis, Odds Movement
Don't bet it now!
In the aftermath of a trade, you’re always getting the worst value on whoever made the big move. The market capitalizes on an influx of attention and hype as casual bettors scramble to back the team that just upgraded their team.
The Rockets moved to +900 at FanDuel and +750 at DraftKings, the second-highest on the board at DraftKings (Cavaliers are +800 at FanDuel).
Rockets Acquire:
- Kevin Durant
Suns Acquire:
- Jalen Green
- Dillon Brooks
- 2025 first-round pick (No. 10)
- Five future second-round picks
In the wake of trades like this, you never want to bet into the market. There’s always an opportunity to buy in lower.
The idea of Houston right now is very likely to be better than the reality. They have to adjust to Kevin Durant being on the team.
Amen Thompson still is going to need to take a big leap forward a floor general, which I believe he will, but it might take two seasons instead of one.
Durant is 37 on an expiring contract and has not exactly been happy everywhere he’s gone. He also needs a floor-raiser, a tide-riser, someone to set the offense and make it better.
That might be Sengun or Thompson, and it might work, but you’ll almost certainly get a better price later.
There’s also the timing of this. This is the second major move of the offseason, the first involving a superstar (with apologies to Desmond Bane).
We’re sure to see a lot more movement between now and July 14 when free agency winds down, and that means we’re sure to see more movement in the market.
Even if the Rockets stay in their position in the market at second or third-best odds, the number will move down as other teams steal headlines.
The Basketball Fit for Houston
So many of the Rockets benefit from this.
Amen Thompson gets a weapon he can work around and with on screening actions. Sengun gets a forward he can combo with and find opportunities for. Jabari Smith will benefit so much from playing next to and learning from Durant.
The rise in efficiency from Jalen Green and Dillon Brooks combined with Durant is significant. This means more efficient players get more shots, not just Durant, but the other players.
Reed Sheppard gets more playing time. Cam Whitmore, if retained, will have more opportunities.
The roster makes more sense and the Rockets have the opportunity to pursue other upgrades.
They can activate Fred VanVleet’s team option for next year giving them a massive expiring contract. They can opt out and sign-and-trade him if there’s a team he prefers. They still have all of Phoenix’s draft future, somehow, and still have the other young players they can move for another superstar.
The future is extremely bright in Houston and they will be better than they were this season.
They finished second in the West, but don’t expect them to jump much in the standings, only in terms of their net rating, power rating, and how good they actually are, especially in a playoff environment.
They are a serious title contender next year, you just don’t want to buy in right now.
For the Suns… what a disaster.
Phoenix…
- doesn’t get any of its picks back despite Houston being the team that owns it.
- doesn’t get any of Alperen Sengun, Amen Thompson, or Jabari Smith. They don’t even get Reed Sheppard or Cam Whitmore.
- gets just one first-round pick back, in a draft where they are likely to look for a center, but there is buzz of a run on centers with Khaman Maluach and Derik Queen taking buzz.
- gets five second-rounders, which means they’ll need to dump other salaries.
- has an unbalanced roster with about 10 different shooting guards.
- still has Bradley Beal.
It’s a disaster, even for a 37-year-old expiring contract.
Houston division futures will be of good value once we get through the rest of the offseason, especially if San Antonio makes a big move.
We’ll have a great opportunity to bet Houston, but not now.
Much like the Rockets and how they waited until Phoenix had swung out so badly they could get the right price, the key is to be patient with betting Houston futures.
2025-26 NBA Finals Odds After Kevin Durant Trade
- Thunder +250
- Rockets +750
- Knicks +900
- Pacers +950
- Cavaliers +1100
- Timberwolves +1400
- Lakers +1600
- Nuggets +1700
- Spurs +1800
- Warriors +2200
- Celtics +2200
- Magic +2800
- Mavericks +3500
- Clippers +4000
- 76ers +4500
- Pistons +7000
- Bucks +7500
- Grizzlies +15000
- Raptors +15000
- Heat +15000
- Suns +17000
- Kings +20000
Odds via DraftKings as of Sunday, June 22 at 2:01 p.m. ET
