3 NBA Props for Monday: Korver Over/Under 10.5 Points?

This article offers data-driven analysis on notable NBA player prop bets, often incorporating The Action Network’s public betting data along with the tools at FantasyLabs and Sports Insights.

Monday’s analysis will cover the following three props:

• Marco Belinelli over/under 11.5 points, Philadelphia vs. Boston, 6 p.m. ET
• Kevin Love over/under 10.5 rebounds, Cleveland vs. Toronto, 8:30 p.m. ET
• Kyle Korver over/under 10.5 points, Cleveland vs. Toronto, 8:30 p.m. ET

Looking for more props? Check out the FantasyLabs NBA Player Props tool.

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Marco Belinelli Over 11.5 Points (-125)

6 p.m. ET | TNT

In 35 games since the All-Star break and including the playoffs, Belinelli is averaging 13.7 points in 27.1 minutes per game. Even if you remove the minutes he logged in overtime of Game 3, he's played more than 27 minutes in two of the three games of the series, and his per-minute scoring rate since the break affords him some cushion even if he doesn't reach that figure. He also shot a lot better at home during the regular season, nailing 47.3% of his field-goal attempts in Meek Mill's hometown compared to 41.3% on the road.

Kevin Love Over 10.5 Rebounds (-140)

8:30 p.m. ET | TNT

With Cavs head coach Tyronn Lue mostly sticking with small lineups with Love at center in this series (Tristan Thompson's played less than 16 minutes in each of the past two games), his rebounding numbers have been steady: 13 in Game 1, 11 in Game 2, and 16 in Game 3. The line is juiced up to -140, but getting a player who's averaging 2.8 rebounds per game above the line while going over in every game of the series still looks like a better bet than some of the 50/50 coin flips on the board Monday.

Kyle Korver Over 10.5 Points (-125)

8:30 p.m. ET | TNT

Matt Moore says it all the time: Role players tend to shoot better at home. This has been true this season of Korver, who connected on 45.3% of his attempts from downtown at home compared to 42.1% on the road during the regular season. Korver played less than five minutes in Cleveland's first home playoff game but has averaged 13.0 points per game in his past four at Quicken Loans Arena, going over the 10.5 mark in three of those matchups. He should also have some cushion given that he's playing 32.9 minutes per game in this series; he's averaged 0.42 points per minute during the regular season and playoffs, and at that rate he'd need only 26.2 minutes of playing time for him to reach 11 points.

Photo credit: Kyle Korver
Pictured above: Bill Streicher – USA TODAY Sports

All lines accurate as of 4 p.m. ET on Monday, May 7.