Follow the Money to Find Thunder-Jazz Betting Value

Follow the Money to Find Thunder-Jazz Betting Value article feature image

“Keep it simple, stupid” (KISS) was a design principle used by the U.S. Navy in the 1960s, the belief being that simple systems work better than complicated ones. This theory has been applied in other industries and is applicable to sports betting.

"Keep It Simple Stupid," great advice, hurts my feelings every time.

A common mistake among new Bet Labs users is overfitting betting systems. There are more than 400 filters and millions of data points available in the software, making it is easy for users to layer filter after filter to create a system with an excellent winning percentage and return on investment. However, these overfitted systems often produce bad results.

 

That’s why when building systems, it is best to keep it simple. Using only three filters, I developed a profitable betting trend for the NBA Playoffs with a game match for Game 6 of Jazz-Thunder (10:30 p.m. ET).

At the time of publication, 59% of spread tickets are on the Jazz -6.5. That’s not too surprising since favorites tend to get the majority of bets but the amount of spread dollars on Utah is not proportional.

More than 83% of all dollars wagered on this game have been placed on the Jazz. This indicates that large wagers, likely from sharp bettors, have been placed on Utah.

Historically, favorites receiving a larger percentage of spread dollars than spread tickets in the postseason have been undervalued.

Since the 2016 NBA Playoffs, when we first began tracking spread-dollar percentages, favorites garnering more money than tickets are 71-37-1 (66%) ATS. A $100 bettor has returned a profit of $3,066 following this system.

This is a small sample, so bettors should proceed accordingly. However, this system has been profitable each postseason and identifies games sharp bettors are playing.

Plus, a steam move bet signal was triggered on the Jazz, another sign of pros liking Utah. When Jazz-Thunder tips tonight, I’ll be needing Utah to cover.

Pictured: Utah Jazz guard Donovan Mitchell