NBA win totals have been released at DraftKings and FanDuel, and with all the offseason movement and trades of free agency, it's a fascinating time to get in early on the market before the quiet time of summer sets in and markets start to move.
With that in mind, here's a look at the win totals and my initial thoughts, plus two best bets I'm making and my current early projections for next season.
2025-26 NBA Win Totals Predictions, Picks, Odds
Atlanta Hawks — 46.5 Wins
Atlanta added one of the big gets in free agency, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, and landed Luke Kennard for shooting.
They drafted Asa Newell and with Jalen Johnson back, look like a team that could make a real push in the Eastern Conference.
Moore's projected wins: 48.5, best bet OVER
Boston Celtics — 43.5 Wins
The great Boston teardown happened this summer as the Celtics chose to trade Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis for cap space and second-round picks, along with Georges Niang.
They also added Anfernee Simons but reports suggest they may look to move him again. Still, the Celtics have Derrick White, Jaylen Brown, and the remaining bench core that won the title in 2024.
Moore's projected wins: 42.5, no bet
Brooklyn Nets — 21.5 Wins
Brooklyn continues to build towards the future, trading Cam Johnson for Michael Porter Jr. and drafting four rookies, including Egor Demin.
They'll be patient as they develop their talent going forward with eyes on bigger free agency classes next summer and beyond.
Moore's projected wins: 22.9, no bet
Charlotte Hornets — 24.5 Wins
The Hornets added more veterans this offseason to surround LaMelo Ball and Brandon Miller by trading for Pat Connaughton and Mason Plumlee.
With young talent expected to progress, Charlotte is looking to build the foundation of a winning team… but might not be quite there yet.
Moore's projected wins: 21.8, bet under
Chicago Bulls — 32.5 Wins
Chicago had a quiet offseason.
They are still working to re-sign Josh Giddey, drafted Noa Essengue, and are counting on internal development from players like Matas Buzelis to carry them forward.
They traded veteran Lonzo Ball to the Cavaliers for stout defensive wing Isaac Okoro.
Moore's projected wins: 34.8, no bet
Cleveland Cavaliers — 55.5 Wins
Cleveland's dream regular season came crashing down in the playoffs, but they still have the second-highest win total in the league for a reason.
They moved Isaac Okoro for the more versatile Lonzo Ball and should get their full team back healthy after Darius Garland recovers from toe surgery.
Questions remain if the Cavs will make more moves this summer, but for now, they are market projected right where they should be, at the top of the East, but maybe still low on their win total.
Moore's projected wins: 60.0, Best Bet over
Detroit Pistons — 45.5 Wins
Pistons fans were hoping for fireworks this summer, but instead, the team made marginal moves, hoping to prosper from internal development.
But their under-the-radar additions of Caris LeVert and Duncan Robinson are both winners and will make their offense more versatile while adding defensively.
Moore's projected wins: 46.3, lean over
Indiana Pacers — 38.5 Wins
What a disappointing end to a Cinderella run for the Pacers, as Tyrese Haliburton suffered an Achilles tear in Game 7.
Without him, the team pivoted its direction to re-stock for next season, losing Myles Turner in free agency.
However, the market has overreacted, overlooking their chemistry and talent.
Moore's projected wins: 38.5, bet over
Miami Heat — 37.5 Wins
Miami had a quiet offseason until they were able to land Norman Powell in a cap-saving move for the Clippers.
Powell adds a dynamite shooter and scorer for a team still in need of offense, and the Heat's traditionally elite defense should bounce back next year.
Moore's projected wins: 45.5, best bet over
Milwaukee Bucks — 45.5 Wins
The Bucks had a dramatic offseason, waiving Damian Lillard to make room to sign Myles Turner while losing Brook Lopez in free agency.
This number suggests they'll be closer to average than they were last season.
Milwaukee had a much better net rating than their record, and this is a buy-low spot in a conference with several teams holding gap seasons.
Moore's projected wins: 52.0, bet over
New York Knicks — 52.5 Wins
The Knicks hope to be the Atlantic Division heir apparent after Boston's tumble following their upset of the Celtics and Jayson Tatum's Achilles injury.
They added Guerschon Yabusele and Jordan Clarkson in free agency, and hired new coach Mike Brown.
They're better, but this might be too high a bar for a team with concerns on both ends of the floor.
Moore's projected wins: 53.3, no bet
Orlando Magic — 51.5 Wins
Orlando knew the time had come for them to push their chips in after back-to-back first-round exits with a low-ranked offense, and their front office understood the assignment.
They traded five first-round picks for Desmond Bane and added Tyus Jones as their starting or backup point guard.
It's a lot of extra firepower, but this team will still go as Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner go.
Moore's projected wins: 50, lean under
Philadelphia 76ers — 43.5 Wins
The Sixers' win total is always trapped between two extremes, the version with injuries (a lottery team below 35 wins) and a healthy one (a true contender with more than 50).
They split the difference and put them here, but it's not an accurate representation.
With No.3 pick VJ Edgecombe lighting up Summer League and Jared McCain back, the Sixers definitely have two timelines. But can they work together or consistently?
Moore's projected wins: Impossible due to injury questions, no bet.
Toronto Raptors — 35.5 Wins
Toronto's biggest change this summer didn't come on the court as longtime head of basketball operations Masai Ujiri parted ways with the team.
Bobby Webster has been running operations for years so continuity is not expected to be disrupted. They finally get Brandon Ingram on the court and added Sandro Mamukelashvili.
Is this the year that Scottie Barnes ascends to where his flashes have shown he's capable of reaching? Or will there be too much talent and not enough ball to go around?
Moore's projected wins: 31.4, lean under
Washington Wizards — 20.5 Wins
No one sees the Wizards coming. From February 1st on, something interesting happened.
The Wizards were 20th in defensive rating. When veteran Khris Middleton played, they were 6-8. There's real talent on this team in the young players who didn't get a real chance to show it.
Washington is being patient and may trade Middleton, CJ McCollum, and Marcus Smart by the time camp starts.
But until they do, with Alex Sarr's improvements over last year, Bub Carrington in his second year, and rookie Tre Johnson, the Wizards may not be .500, but they'll be much closer to it this season.
Moore's projected wins: 30.1, Best Bet over
Dallas Mavericks — 39.5 Wins
The Mavericks are hoping to compete in the Western Conference with their defense-first approach along with No. 1 overall pick Cooper Flagg until Kyrie Irving can rejoin the team this year or next.
In the meantime, they’ll rely on Anthony Davis, PJ Washington, and new point guard D’Angelo Russell to navigate the tough Western Conference.
Matt Moore's projected wins: 40.3, no bet
Denver Nuggets — 53.5 Wins
The new Denver Nuggets front office understood the assignment: improve the roster, depth, and versatility around Nikola Jokic.
With Cameron Johnson in for Michael Porter Jr., along with Bruce Brown, Tim Hardaway Jr., and hopefully for Denver a trade for Jonas Valanciunas, Denver looks ready to make another serious run at the West crown after taking the champs to seven games.
Matt Moore's projected wins: 53.8, no bet
Golden State Warriors — 47.5 Wins
The Warriors hope their big offseason acquisition will be a fulll season with Jimmy Butler and for their core of aging legends to stay healthy.
The Warriors were dominant with Butler down the stretch of the regular season. Can these old horses make one more run with Steph Curry, Draymond Green, and Butler?
Matt Moore's projected wins: 47.5, no bet
Houston Rockets — 55.5 Wins
Houston, we have liftoff.
The Rockets added future Hall of Famer Kevin Durant this summer in the biggest blockbuster move, but don’t overlook their additions of veteran Dorrian Finney-Smith and Clint Capela.
Still, this is a high win total and those typically go under historically.
Matt Moore's projected wins: 52.4, best bet under
Los Angeles Clippers — 46.5 Wins
The Clippers said goodbye to Norman Powell in a cost-saving move, but bolstered their frontcourt with Brook Lopez and John Collins.
Whether this older team can stay healthy through 82 and be ready for a playoff run past the first round remains to be seen, even with Kawhi Leonard seemingly healthier than he’s been in years.
Matt Moore's projected wins: 50.9, no bet (injury concerns)
Los Angeles Lakers — 47.5 Wins
On the surface, the Lakers accomplished their major goal of the offseason, putting a pick-and-roll big next to Luka Doncic.
But the rest of the roster feels incomplete, and questions still hover around cryptic comments from LeBron James about his future after picking up his player option for next season.
Matt Moore's projected wins: 51.2, no bet
Memphis Grizzlies — 40.5 Wins
The Grizzlies take a big hit in the win total department after a disastrous end to their season and the trade of Desmond Bane to Orlando.
But this overlooks the kind of young talent they have up and coming with Jaylen Wells and Zach Edey (after he recovers from injury) along with first-round pick Cedric Coward.
Is this the bounceback season for Ja Morant or will inconsistency spell an end to his time as the face of the franchise?
Matt Moore's projected wins: 49.2, Best Bet Over
Minnesota Timberwolves — 50.5 Wins
The Wolves continue to make offseason moves that should sink them, and continue to prove critics wrong by reaching the conference finals.
After losing Nickeil Alexander-Walker in free agency, they hope Terrence Shannon Jr. will fill the gap, along with promising center Joan Berenger.
Matt Moore's projected wins: 53.5, lean over
New Orleans Pelicans — 31.5 Wins
The Pelicans took two rookies in this draft, baffling analysts by giving up an unprotected first to acquire Derik Queen.
The Pelicans have a lot of players who could be great, but no one who has proven they can do it consistently for 70-plus games.
Will the new front office prove that a new direction was all that was missing?
Matt Moore's projected wins: 32.1, no bet
Oklahoma City Thunder — 62.5 Wins
The champs retain absolutely everyone from the title run after handing out huge extensions to MVP and Finals MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jaylen Williams, and Chet Holmgren.
The roster will likely look different in two years, but for now, OKC hopes that internal development of their already dominant core and continuity will make them the first team to repeat as champions since 2018.
Matt Moore's projected wins: 67.7, lean under based on number
Phoenix Suns — 30.5 Wins
The Suns said farewell to the Kevin Durant era in Phoenix after wildly disappointing seasons, and are reportedly nearing a buyout with Bradley Beal.
They hope that adding young talent like Khaman Maluach and more time for rookie standout Ryan Dunn will help Devin Booker return to playoff contention.
Matt Moore's projected wins: 46.5, Best Bet over
Portland Trail Blazers — 33.5 Wins
Portland has a team full of young guys up and down who you love if you’re a hoophead and League Pass obsessive.
But they still need to find their driving force to be a playoff team outside of an improving defense. Is Scoot Henderson ready for the leap?
Did they find the steal of the draft and a superstar in Hansen Yang? Will they ever trade their veterans? Lots of promise, but lots of questions to answer in Portland.
Matt Moore's projected wins: 34.0, lean over
Sacramento Kings — 36.5 Wins
The Kings’ big free agency addition was point guard Dennis Schröder, which is curious since they already have Zach LaVine and DeMar DeRozan as ball-handers.
No one seems to know what the new front office’s direction will be but the clock seems to be ticking with Domantas Sabonis’ window of playoff contention and patience.
Matt Moore's projected wins: 42.9, lean over
San Antonio Spurs — 43.5 Wins
The Spurs didn’t make any big moves to add veteran talent around Victor Wembanyama like last season.
Instead they made a few savvy pickups like Luke Kornet and drafted the consensus No. 2 player in Dylan Harper, even if it creates a logjam at point guard with De’Aaron Fox and Stephon Castle.
If the Spurs can just get any improvement from their role players along with Wembanyama’s unchartable growth curve, they could be in line for a playoff spot.
Matt Moore's projected wins: 46.5, lean over
Utah Jazz — 18.5 Wins
Utah didn’t land a top lottery spot, but took superstar potential with Ace Bailey.
There’s more talent here than their performance last season showed, with players like Isaiah Collier under the radar.
But will the Jazz focus on development or winning this season, and how does that decision impact the possibility of trade talks for Lauri Markkanen?
Matt Moore's projected wins: 18.2, lean under
