Monday’s Best NBA Player Props: Betting Paul Millsap Points, More
Photo credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Paul Millsap
- Monday night's seven-game slate features three player prop bets offering value.
- This piece will focus on Cavaliers PF Larry Nance Jr., Pelicans F Nikola Mirotic and Nuggets PF Paul Millsap.
Prop bets can be a great way to get action on a game. Bookmakers don’t have to worry about taking a lot of action on them, so there isn’t as great an incentive to post a competitive line.
As a result, props can be some of the most exploitable bets on the board.
These props can become downright unfair when you combine them with the FantasyLabs Player Prop tool.
Monday’s best props focus on three of the slate’s seven games:
- Cleveland Cavaliers at Orlando Magic: 7 p.m. ET
- New Orleans Pelicans at Oklahoma City Thunder: 8 p.m. ET on NBATV
- Boston Celtics at Denver Nuggets: 9 p.m. ET
Let’s dive right in.
Cavs PF Larry Nance Jr.
The Pick: Under 9.5 points (-115)
Nance was expected to take on a larger role for the Cavs after the injury to Kevin Love, but that hasn’t been the case recently. He’s played 18.5 minutes or less in each of his past three games and has scored nine points or less in each of those contests. He’s currently projected for just 19.5 minutes in today’s matchup vs. the Magic, which will make it difficult for him to hit the over on his scoring prop.
Nance is far from a scoring machine – his usage rate of 20.1% ranks seventh on the team – so it’s hard to see him racking up double-digit points. I’d play this prop up to -150.
Pelicans F Nikola Mirotic
The Pick: Over 19 points (+110)
Tonight’s game between the Thunder and Pelicans should be the best of the day from an offensive perspective. The total currently sits at 237 points, which is nearly 10 points higher than every other contest.
Mirotic has been one of the Pelicans’ top offensive options this season, posting a career-best usage rate of 25.1%, and the result is an average of 22.4 points per game. The Thunder have been mediocre defensively with Andre Roberson out of the lineup, so getting better than even money on this prop makes it appealing.
Vegas is expecting lots of points in this contest, so I have no problem backing Mirotic at plus money. Even if the line moves, I’d feel comfortable playing the over up to -130.
Nuggets PF Paul Millsap
The Pick: Under 14 points (-105)
Millsap has transitioned into a different role for the Nuggets this season and is averaging just 27.0 minutes per game. He’s been effective recently, scoring at least 13 points in three of his past four games, but he’s shot 59.1% from the field and 50.0% from 3-point range over that time frame. That’s creating some value with his scoring prop in a difficult matchup against the Boston Celtics.
They currently rank first in defensive efficiency, and the Nuggets’ implied team total of 106.0 points represents a decrease of more than five points compared to their average (111.4).
I love betting unders against the Celtics, and this line seems a little inflated by Millsap’s recent performances. I like this bet up to -160.