Monday NBA Playoffs Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Celtics vs. Raptors Game 5 (Sept. 7)
Douglas P. DeFelice/Getty Images. Pictured: Jayson Tatum, Kyle Lowry
- The Raptors came back from a 0-2 series deficit to the Raptors to win Games 3 and 4.
- Now that the series is even, where's the value for Monday night's Game 5?
- Find out why Joe Dellera likes the Toronto moneyline and price to win the series.
Celtics vs. Raptors Game 5 Betting Odds
|Celtics Odds||-1 [BET NOW]|
|Raptors Odds||+1 [BET NOW]|
|Moneyline||-113/-106 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||212 [BET NOW]|
|Time||6:40 p.m. ET|
This series is knotted up at two games apiece and it finally feels like the Raptors, who looked absolutely dejected prior to the OG Anunoby buzzer-beater in Game 3, have a bit of their Championship swagger back. This is a now a best-of-3, who comes out on top?
Is Nick Nurse the king of adjustments? The playoff foil to Mike Budenholzer? Considering the Raptors have now won every third quarter this series, I’d say yes.
The Raptors have been able to adapt, and it has led to a bit of chaos for the Celtics. Even last game, in the fourth quarter the Raptors threw multiple defensive schemes at the Celtics, including man-to-man, box-and-1, and triangle-and-2 and limited the Celtics to just 20 points in the quarter.
The Raptors have started to key in on Jayson Tatum, and even though he scored 24 points, it’s started to feel like he needs to be truly great for the Celtics to break away and win this series.
Additionally, the Raptors are due for some positive regression. Per Cleaning the Glass, the Raptors have a 48.1% eFG% in this series. Adjusted to location and league averages, the Raptors should be shooting 54.1%. This is a massive swing.
Some of this is attributable to the Celtics’ defense, but this cannot be written off as entirely based on that. The Raptors are due, and coming off two big wins to even this series, I think they will come out firing and confident.
The Celtics are experiencing the opposite type of shooting regression and falling back to earth from beyond the arc. Last game they were an abysmal 7/35 (20%) from 3 point range, which is below their season average but on the series the Celtics still have a 53.8% eFG%. Can we expect the same type of positive regression for the Celtics?
In a nutshell, no. Adjusted to location and league averages the Celtics’ location eFG% is 53.8%, just 0.4% better than how they are currently shooting. They’re obviously playing well enough to win, and some could argue they should really be up 3-1 now in this series; however, the longer this series goes, the more you question the finishing ability of the Celtics’ stars, namely Jason Tatum and Kemba Walker.
Those two need to take a step forward and I wonder if Brad Stevens will trust Tatum and Walker with even higher usage rates in the remaining two or three games of this series.
Check out our free NBA odds page, which automatically surfaces the best line for every game. Subscribe to our new NBA Insiders tool at FantasyLabs to beat the market with our cutting edge player projections, injury news and betting thresholds.
Betting Analysis & Pick
The Raptors are prepared for this grind of a series. Nick Nurse has played Kyle Lowry, Fred VanVleet, Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby over 80 minutes each in the past two games.
This is a Championship mindset, this team is ready for an absolute grind. The Celtics have played their main stars more minutes as well, however, the increase is more dramatic from the regular season than the Raptors’.
This series has been a battle, and I’ve said I think the Raptors are the better team in this series. They’ve played exceptional defense against the 4th best regular season offense in the league and I expect this to continue. Moreover, the Raptors are due for positive shooting regression and I think they win this next game.
The Raptors are making the proper adjustments, and it’s at the point where I am trusting the Raptors to defend their title. The series price is worth considering. This has been so close and while it’s possible the Raptors drop one game to the Celtics, I think the Raptors ultimately advance to the Eastern Conference Finals.
PICKS: Raptors ML -105 (to -120); Raptors to win the series -110 (to -130)