Warriors-Jazz Betting Preview: Will Utah Continue Its ATS Dominance vs. Golden State?

Warriors-Jazz Betting Preview: Will Utah Continue Its ATS Dominance vs. Golden State? article feature image

Photos from USA Today Sports. Pictured: Stephen Curry and Donovan Mitchell

Betting odds: Golden State Warriors at Utah Jazz

  • Spread: Warriors -3
  • Over/Under: 217.5
  • Time: 10:30 p.m. ET
  • TV channel: ESPN

>> All odds as of noon ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NBA odds and track your bets

The Warriors and Jazz both looked uninspired in their first games of the season. Now they’ll face each other in the tough altitude of Utah.

Can the Warriors show they still dominate the West? Can Utah jump into the top echelon of teams? Our analysts discuss.

Moore: What I’m Watching for Tonight

Utah was genuinely challenged in its first game by the Kings. As is often the case, if you bring an A-effort vs. the Jazz, you’ll be in a position to win. They make you want to quit with their physicality and precision, but if you fight through, you’ll give yourself a chance. Ricky Rubio was benched in the second half of that first game, with Dante Exum showing out on both ends to help Utah win.

The big key here is how much the Warriors depend on cuts for their offense. They are constantly manipulating the defense to draw defenders out and then they punish them with smart cuts.

Rudy Gobert wasn’t great in that first game. If he doesn’t show up, and if Rubio struggles again, no amount of Donovan Mitchell heroics will keep this within the spread.

Golden State showed some of its usual passive apathy in its win over OKC. It’s unlikely Utah, which has failed to really mount a challenge against the Warriors, will draw out Golden State’s A-effort. For Golden State, it so rarely needs its top gear. You have to earn the effort from the Warriors. Matt Moore

Do the Warriors … Lack Shooters?

I know, it seems like a silly question to even ask on the surface considering three of the best shooters of all time in Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Kevin Durant play for Golden State.

But seriously, this team has literally no other shooters on the roster. Draymond Green has seen a decline offensively, and the bench unit, led by guys such as Shaun Livingston and Andre Iguodala, are allergic to 3-pointers. Against OKC, Curry, Thompson and Durant combined for 6-of-22 shooting from beyond the arc; the rest of the Warriors combined for 1-of-4. The efficiency there is less important than the attempts, by the way.

Against the Thunder, the Warriors took just 31% of their shots at the rim (19th percentile of games) and 26% of attempts from 3 (25th percentile). Most nights, that might be OK given the Big Shooting 3 can catch fire. But on a night in which Klay and Durant are off, which can happen against a good defensive team, the room for error is just a lot smaller than it was during the earlier Golden State years.

And I’m not sure why that is: Most people would claim Steve Kerr is one of the best coaches in the NBA, and his résumé is obviously great. But the offense isn’t exactly groundbreaking at this point. And the roster as constructed oddly de-emphasizes shooting, outside of the stars. The talent is as good as it’s ever been, but will these faults ever bite the Warriors? Bryan Mears

Betting Trends to Know

The Jazz are 29-16 ATS as home underdogs under Quin Snyder, covering on average by 4.9 points per game. That includes a 4-2 ATS record against the Warriors in the regular season since 2015. John Ewing

The Jazz have absolutely dominated the Golden State Warriors in their past three meetings. They are 3-0 SU and ATS, have had the edge in field-goal percentage, 3-point percentage and rebounding. And they’ve led at the half in all three games, too.

In the 2018 calendar year, the Warriors have faced 23 different NBA teams and have beaten 20 of them; the Jazz are the only team Golden State has lost to three times or more without a win during that span. Evan Abrams

The Jazz survived opening night against the Kings with a 123-117 win, despite 17 turnovers on the road at the Golden 1 Center. Under Snyder, the Jazz are 79-52-3 ATS (60.3%) after Utah turns the ball over 15 times or more in its previous game.

Since becoming head coach in 2014, Snyder has profited bettors 23.1 units in this spot; the next closest coach is Brett Brown at only 13.7 units. To display how big of an advantage bettors may have with the Jazz, when Utah turns the ball over fewer than 15 times in its previous game under Snyder, it is just 83-102-5 ATS (44.9%), losing bettors 23 units. Evan Abrams

Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.