Magic vs. Bucks Game 5 Updated Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions (Saturday, Aug. 29)

Magic vs. Bucks Game 5 Odds

Odds updated as of Saturday at 1:30 p.m. ET and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

We’re starting to see some teams punch their tickets for the second round of the playoffs, and the Bucks can join on Saturday. They’ve won three games in a row after dropping the first of this series, and they’ve covered in each game as well.

Will the Bucks cover for the fourth straight game, or can the Magic fight back? Let’s break it down.

Milwaukee Bucks

The Bucks’ defense got off to a rough start in Game 1 of this series, but they’ve since turned things around. They’ve limited the Magic to an offensive efficiency of just 100.3 points per 100 possessions, which is basically in line with their mark from during the regular season.

It all starts with Giannis Antetokounmpo, who led all players in Defensive Win Shares this season and was rewarded with his first Defensive Player of the Year award.

The Bucks have also picked it up on the offensive end. They’ve averaged 114.6 points per 100 possessions over their past three games, and they’ve posted an effective FG% (eFG) of 60.1%.

Essentially, the Bucks have been the same dominant team we’ve seen all season after a brief stumble out of the gates.

Khris Middleton is really the only member of the team who hasn’t lived up to expectations in the playoffs. He’s shot just 33.9% from the field and 58.3% from the free-throw line, both of which are well below his regular-season marks — he fell just short of a 50/40/90 regular season. They haven’t really needed him in this series, but the Bucks will definitely need better performances from him moving forward if they want to win the NBA title.

Orlando Magic

The Magic came into this series at a serious disadvantage in terms of talent, and they were also short a couple of key contributors. Jonathan Isaac went down with a major knee injury during the seeding games, and Aaron Gordon has joined him on the sidelines with a hamstring injury that caused him to leave the bubble earlier this week.

With both of those bigs shelved, they’ve simply had no answer for Giannis. He’s shooting a ridiculous 57.8% from the field, and he’s upped that mark to 74.3% over the past two games. It’s not like that number has come on a low volume of shots, either — he’s averaged 17.5 field goal attempts over his past two contests.

Teams simply won't win a lot of basketball games when they let one player dominate like that.

The Magic have received some stellar performances from Nikola Vucevic, who is averaging 29.5 points, 10 rebounds, and 3.8 assists per game in this series. He’s also shooting 54.7% from the field and 44.1% from 3-point range, so he’s been pretty efficient as well.

But Vucevic has gotten no help from the rest of his teammates. Terrence Ross ranks second on the team with 17.3 points per game, but he’s shot just 28.0% from 3-point range. D.J. Augustin, Evan Fournier, and Markelle Fultz have shot a combined 36.8% from the field. After that, the Magic’s rotation is full of players who simply shouldn’t be on the court in the NBA playoffs.

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Betting Analysis

This series has been close at times, but the talent gap between these two teams is wide enough to drive a truck through. If we simulated this series 100 times, the Bucks probably sweep the Magic more times than all other outcomes combined.

I don’t see how the Magic can be motivated enough to put up a fight in this contest. These guys have been quarantined for over a month now, so it would only be natural for them to want to leave the bubble. Deep down, they know they can’t win this series, so why prolong the agony?

Historically, teams seeded either No. 1 or No. 2 in their conference have taken care of business in Game 5s during the first round. They’ve posted a record of 25-12-2 against the spread (62.5%), and we saw the Clippers cover in that situation on Monday. That’s not an overwhelming sample size by any means, but it makes sense the superior team would assert itself as it gets deeper into a series.

The Bucks have also been one of the best bets in basketball as large favorites over the past two years. They’ve gone 22-16 against the spread when favored by at least 12 points, which makes them the second-most profitable team in that situation.

I don’t think I’d play this line at much higher than 14 points, but it’s time to put this series to bed.

The Pick: Bucks -13.5

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