Thursday NBA Odds & Picks (Oct. 31): Betting Analysis, DFS Strategies, Injuries, More

This NBA season, I'm trying something new. I'm going to write a daily piece that highlights everything bettors and DFS players need to know for that night's slate. For more on what to expect, read the inaugural piece.

Yesterday I finished 4-6 for -0.6 units. While I don't want to get sucked into the past, I think it's worth reviewing things each day.

The best way to do that is to look at closing line value (CLV), which is just measuring whether the line you bet moved for or against you by closing.

• I bet the Suns-Warriors over 229 and it closed at 231
• I bet Warriors -5 and it closed at Warriors -5
• I bet Kings -7 and it closed at Kings -7.5
• I bet the Hornets-Kings over 223 and it closed at 223
• I bet Jazz -3 and it closed at Jazz -7
• I bet the Blazers -120 moneyline and it closed at -125
• I bet Bucks -3 and it closed at Bucks -3.5
• I bet Bulls -1.5 and it closed at Bulls -2

It was a tough and frustrating night, but the good news is that I matched or beat the closing number on every pre-game bet. I say pre-game because I bet the Nets at -5.5 and then -1.5 after Pacers big man Myles Turner went down for the game, and then Brooklyn proceeded to fold in the second half.

Overall, the bad teams I was expecting to see some regression from did not regress. The Bulls, whose mantra is play well in the first half and then collapse in the second, did just that.

The Cavaliers shot 100% (an approximation) in the second half, and there are some issues with this team I think look here to stay. Zach LaVine was the only player to get above 30 minutes, and Otto Porter looked like that hip injury was really hampering him. I think it's time to adjust expectations for them moving forward.

The Bucks collapsed in the second half, and I'm unsure how I feel about that bet. I was actually on the Celtics but pulled the trigger on the Bucks at -3 once Jaylen Brown was ruled out.

In hindsight, that probably didn't make a lot of sense: Brown isn't worth that much to the spread, and I already thought the Celtics were undervalued. His absence shouldn't have changed my bet from Celtics to Bucks; if anything, it should've changed it from Celtics to a no bet.

The Warriors. What to say about the Warriors, who were down 43-14 after the first quarter and ended up losing by 11 after a full game of garbage time. I knew that roster outside of Stephen Curry, D'Angelo Russell and Draymond Green was terrible, but I gave that trio a little too much respect to raise the tide.

That clearly isn't happening for multiple reasons: The roster really is that bad, Green is a ceiling-raiser as opposed to a floor-raiser, etc.

Curry is now out for the foreseeable future with a broken hand. It will be fascinating to see how the betting market treats this team without him; they look like one of the worst teams in the league now.

And my final note is on the Jazz game. I bet it right after it was announced Kawhi Leonard would rest on the first leg of a back-to-back. I got it at Jazz -3, and it obviously ballooned way up to -7 by closing time (and maybe should've been even higher given Kawhi's value minus Paul George).

That was obviously a +EV bet, but I think I made a mistake in not really pressing the advantage more. I bet that game at 2x the other games, when in reality the expected edge at the number I was betting was way more than 2x.

Anyway, onto today's small slate. This is a long post, so use the jump links below to skip ahead to whatever you're looking for.

Note: For updates, see the chat at the bottom of this post.

Betting Odds and Analysis

• 7 p.m. ET: Miami Heat (-6.5) at Atlanta Hawks, 215.5
• 9:30 p.m. ET: Denver Nuggets (-4) at New Orleans Pelicans, 224.5
• 10:30 p.m. ET: San Antonio Spurs at Los Angeles Clippers (-4.5), 226.5

(Odds via PointsBet — claim your 200% deposit match, an exclusive promotion for Action Network users)

Let's run through each game.

Heat at Hawks: First, let's talk about this line and what it signifies. Trae Young will sit out tonight's game after spraining his ankle in Wednesday's game against the Heat (which is a scheduling pet peeve of mine; the Heat essentially get two free games because they happen to play the Hawks twice with Young out as opposed to spreading these games out).

In Wednesday's game, the line closed at Heat -8.5 in Miami with Trae playing. I'd have home court worth 2.5 to 3 points for both of these teams — it's a little higher for some teams like the Jazz and Nuggets, who play at elevation — which means a neutral court line would've been around Heat -5.5 to -6. Tonight's game is at Heat -6.5 in Atlanta, which means a neutral court line is about -9 to -9.5.

That signifies the betting market thinks Trae is worth about 3-4 points to the spread. Is that right?

It's tough to say. Last season, the Hawks were 1.3 points per 100 possessions better with him on the floor vs. off. He was very valuable on offense but gave away some value on the other end.

This season, however, he's seemingly taken a leap, and the Hawks have been a stupid 25.4 points/100 worse without him. That will regress with a larger sample, but it is indicative of his importance, as well as the Hawks' lack of depth at lead guard without him.

We currently have DeAndre' Bembry projected to start in Trae's place; he'll slide in with Cam Reddish, De'Andre Hunter, John Collins and Alex Len.

None of those guys are great shot-creators — in fact, some of them are downright bad for their positions — and there aren't really good options otherwise. Kevin Huerter has some upside, but will continue to have his minutes capped around 20.

The obvious candidate to take over lead guard duties would be Evan Turner, but he's also out with an Achilles injury. I'm not expecting great things from this Hawks offense tonight.

Another big question is how real their defense is. So far on the season, they rank seventh in defensive efficiency. They've held opponents to poor shooting and have generated a lot of turnovers.

Is that sustainable though? The fundamentals are weird: They're allowing a lot of shots at the rim and beyond the arc; opponents just aren't hitting them.

All in all, it seems they've gotten pretty lucky: They have an expected effective field goal percentage allowed of 53%, but opponents have posted a mark of just 46.5%. They will likely regress, especially as the play better shooting teams — their recent games have been against the Sixers, Magic and Pistons.

All said, I'm not touching this over/under given the dynamics listed above. I think there's still a bit of value on the Heat at -6.5, but I probably wouldn't bet it above that number. Trae is already (rightfully) getting a lot of value here.

Nuggets at Pelicans: The fast-paced Ty Lawson Nuggets of past days are certainly no longer here. So far, the Nuggets have easily posted a league-low pace of 98.9. That's like Grit'N'Grind Grizzlies slow.

That's interesting because the Pelicans are awful in transition, ranking in the bottom-five in both transition opportunities and defensive efficiency on those possessions.

In general, Pelicans games have been layup lines so far: They're dead last in percentage of shots allowed at the rim. They're also bottom-five in 3-pointers allowed. (When do they play the Rockets?) Things are likely to be better with Derrick Favors doubtful with a knee injury.

The Nuggets, however, are bottom-10 in shots at those valuable locations, and they've been one of the worst teams at converting in the restricted area. For what it's worth, they were not good last year either.

As a result, the Nuggets aren't exactly prime to take advantage of the Pelicans' major weaknesses. For all those reasons, it's not terribly surprising the total has dropped way down from 227 at opening to 223 currently. The Nuggets have been slightly unlucky on offense while slightly lucky on defense. If this continues dropping, I might pull the trigger on the over around 221-222.

As of Thursday afternoon, in Sports Insights we've tracked steam moves on under 226 and under 224.5. There's been no buyback on the over as of yet, but that's definitely one to track within our tools.

Spread-wise, this might get to a spot to buy the Pelicans, as scary as that may be. The public right now is all over the Nuggets, who are getting 81% of the bets and 94% of the money as of 1 p.m. ET.

In situations like that, it's been profitable to buy the inflated line of the contrarian team:

So far we've tracked a steam move on Nuggets -4 and then buybacks on the Pelicans at both +5 and +4.5. If the public money pushes this up to 5 again, I think there's a bit of value on the home team here.

Over the past three seasons, the Nuggets as a favorite have gone 40-35-1 against the spread at home but 15-22 on the road.

Spurs at Clippers: The Clips are on the second leg of a back-to-back, but I don't think that's worth much for the Spurs here. First, back-to-backs are overrated early in the season when teams are more rested, as my colleague John Ewing wrote here.

And second, the Clips' best player, Kawhi Leonard, sat out last night. It wasn't a particularly close game against the Jazz, either, so the main guys weren't stretched a bunch: Lou Williams played 27 minutes. Montrezl Harrell got in foul trouble and played just 13.

As a result, I think the Clips are a bit undervalued here, especially since they've moved from -5 at opening to -4. That essentially says these teams are close to even on a neutral floor, and I don't believe that to be the case. Perhaps the line is incorporating the back-to-back as a ding for them, but again I don't think it should really be a factor in this line.

Some trends for you, if you're into that kind of the thing: Over the past three years, the Spurs are 49-34-2 ATS at home vs. 36-44-2 on the road.

They have been good against the league's best teams, going 30-18-1 ATS against opponents with a win rate of 60% or higher, but the splits on that one are pretty stark…

• As favorite vs. opponents with win rate 60% or higher: 15-5 ATS
• As underdog vs. opponents with win rate 60% or higher: 15-13-1 ATS

A big chunk of that value is the Spurs as favorites and at home.

If the Clips have a weakness on offense so far, it's turning over the ball. That said, the Spurs are currently dead last in forcing turnovers on defense, even with Dejounte Murray back in action.

Interestingly, the Spurs have actually run the ball quite a bit this season, ranking first in transition frequency (again, Dejounte). That said, the Clips have limited transition opportunities at the second-best rate — that's what happens when you're second in offensive efficiency and first in eFG% — and the Spurs haven't been that great at converting them anyway.

I wouldn't bet this at Clippers -5, but I like -4 for a small edge.

Projected Starting Lineups and Injury News

Note: Info as of 2 p.m. ET. For up-to-the-minute lineups and news, see FantasyLabs' matchups page.

Projected Lineups

• Atlanta Hawks: DeAndre’ Bembry – Cam Reddish – De’Andre Hunter – John Collins – Alex Len
• Denver Nuggets: Jamal Murray – Gary Harris – Will Barton – Paul Millsap – Nikola Jokic
• Los Angeles Clippers: Patrick Beverley – Landry Shamet – Kawhi Leonard – Patrick Patterson – Ivica Zubac
• Miami Heat: Justise Winslow – Kendrick Nunn – Jimmy Butler – Meyers Leonard – Bam Adebayo
• New Orleans Pelicans: Lonzo Ball – Jrue Holiday – JJ Redick – Brandon Ingram – Jahlil Okafor
• San Antonio Spurs: Dejounte Murray – Bryn Forbes – DeMar DeRozan – Trey Lyles – LaMarcus Aldridge

Injury News

• Atlanta Hawks: Trae Young (ankle), Chandler Parsons (knees) and Evan Turner (Achilles) are out. De’Andre Hunter (dental) is no longer on the injury report.
• Denver Nuggets: Will Barton (toe) is questionable.
• Los Angeles Clippers: Nothing new.
• Miami Heat: Derrick Jones Jr. (groin) and Dion Waiters are out. James Johnson (conditioning) is uncertain to play. Justise Winslow (back) is questionable.
• New Orleans Pelicans: Derrick Favors (knee) is doubtful. Jrue Holiday (knee) is probable.
• San Antonio Spurs: Nothing new.

The biggest news of the day on this small slate is Trae Young's absence, which I wrote in-depth about in the above section. See that for more information.

Player Props

To bet props, I use our FantasyLabs player props tool. Follow me in the Action Network app to see my bets (or go to the bottom of the article), but the more important thing is the tool, which measures our projections for every player vs. current odds in the market and highlights the biggest edges for you.

Player props are an inefficient market, which allows casual bettors (limits are low, so pro bettors aren't incentivized to prioritize them) to grab very +EV bets. That said, the lines move quickly. Our props tool is set up so you can always see whether there's an edge even at the updated numbers throughout the day.

It's one of my favorite tools we offer and should be one of your bookmarked pages if you like making a few extra bucks. Here's a screenshot of what it looks like:

My usual recommendation: Bet unders. Last season, 10-rated props in our tool hit at a 60.31% rate. But overs hit at a 57.08% rate vs. 66.47% for unders. For 9-rated props, 55.96% of overs were successful bets vs. 62.60% for unders.

As I wrote about yesterday, unders have more outs: A blowout, an injury, a poor shooting night — all will likely make the under hit. But also, props are less efficient as a market given the low limits, so they're less likely to adjust for things like opponent and pace.

One under I think is intriguing is LaMarcus Aldridge's rebounds. It's set at 9.5, which he's gone under in every game this year. The Spurs have run more than usual this season, lowering his rate, and he's also playing this season with Murray at point, who has an incredibly high rebound rate for a guard (which is a reason they're running more).

As a result, Aldridge's rebound rate so far is just 12%, the lowest of his career. I don't think the market has adjusted for that.

DFS Values and Strategy

Two guys popping in our FantasyLabs NBA models are Will Barton and Jamal Murray. They're both mid-priced DraftKings options, and they have the benefit of going up against a Pelicans defense that has been utter trash so far. They're 28th in defensive efficiency (scrubbing out garbage time).

In fact, the Pels are in the bottom-10 in all four defensive four factors: eFG% allowed (21st), turnover rate (21st), defensive rebounding (30th) and opponent free throw rate (25th). They've allowed the highest percentage of shots at the rim and the fifth-most from beyond the arc. They allow transition possessions at a high rate, and they're playing at the third-fastest pace in the league.

I don't think I need to sell you anymore on the Nuggets in this pace-up spot, even with the under getting hit with sharp money today. There will be fantasy opportunities, making those guys great values, plus Nikola Jokic a worthy stud to target as well.

Speaking of studs, it's a light slate for them today. Jokic and Kawhi Leonard are the only two players priced above $8,300 on DraftKings. Studs are always popular in cash games and tournaments, and I typically like to try to fit them in on slates, but if there were a day to possibly prefer a more balanced build — the Nuggets guys listed above, Montrezl Harrell, DeMar DeRozan, etc. — it might be this day.

The other big question on the slate is what to do with the Hawks, who are missing about 40% usage with Trae out. Bembry is going to get the start for Trae and (I guess) be the de facto point guard, which makes him underpriced but volatile on both sites.

Huerter, who has a minutes cap but will likely have to handle some ball-handling duties, is very cheap at $3,400. Some Hawks player will likely pop for tournaments — maybe it's John Collins — but there's some uncertainty in this situation given Trae's importance.

For more DFS analysis and value plays, check out the FantasyLabs NBA models.

My Bets Currently

• Clippers -4 (I wouldn't bet past -4.5)

I finished 4-6 for -0.6 units if you want an alert on other bets I make. I'll also make updates in the chat below.

Updates and Live Chat

I will put updated thoughts below, whether they're about line movement, injury news, etc. You can also ask questions, which I'll answer as quickly as I can.