NBA Expert Betting Picks (Wednesday, March 4): Our Staff’s Best Bets for Bulls vs. Timberwolves, Pelicans vs. Mavericks, More

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Stephen Lew/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: New Orleans Pelicans forward Zion Williamson (1).

  • Looking for an edge on tonight's NBA schedule? Our staff has found plenty of betting value across Wednesday's nine-game slate.
  • Three of the four matchups our crew is betting on involve teams in the playoff hunt: Grizzlies vs. Nets, Magic vs. Heat, Pelicans vs. Mavericks.
  • Check out all their picks for tonight, along with a breakdown for each game.

There are nine games on Wednesday’s NBA schedule and our experts are betting on these specific matchups:

  • 7:30 p.m. ET: Memphis Grizzlies at Brooklyn Nets
  • 7:30 p.m. ET: Orlando Magic at Miami Heat
  • 8 p.m. ET: Chicago Bulls at Minnesota Timberwolves
  • 9:30 p.m. ET: New Orleans Pelicans at Dallas Mavericks

See the three bets they’re making below.

Wednesday NBA Betting Picks


Odds as of Wednesday and via FanDuel. Get up to a $500 risk-free bet at FanDuel today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.


Wob: Grizzlies at Nets

  • Spread: Nets -1.5
  • Over/Under: 223.5
  • Time: 7:30 p.m. ET

Do I believe in a thing called love? No, but I do believe in a little thing called momentum.

The Nets had absolutely no business winning that game in Boston last night: Down double-digits late in the fourth quarter with their starters banged up, having New York tabloids talk about this being a gap year and the Celtics ascending to one of the East’s elite teams. And yet, they did it anyway.

Nobody has ever doubted the talent of Caris LeVert, the man was put on this planet to get buckets. His biggest problem, like Kyrie Irving, has been staying healthy and playing in games consistently.

Now that he’s back, he looks more than happy to carry the burden of the Nets’ offense now and moving forward into the playoffs. So let’s talk about tonight’s game. The Nets are a short favorite here because, on paper, this is the second leg of a back-to-back.

However, this is not a true one, in my opinion, as the Nets probably got back home from Boston quicker than they would in standard rush hour NYC traffic.

Also, most of the Nets starters were not on the floor when Brooklyn made that run to force overtime and ultimately win the game. Kenny Atkinson rode the bench guys and Levert all the way through, so many of their mainstay rotation players shouldn’t be too fatigued heading into tonight’s contest.

The players really looked to be energized by the comeback, and it would not surprise me in the least to see that same energy carry over into tonight’s game vs. Memphis. It’s a weird thing in basketball, when you know you’ve got “it”. I don’t even know what the definition of “it” is, but the Nets have it right now.

Despite beating the Lakers impressively at home, I still don’t trust the Grizzlies over the course of a 48-minute game to score enough points without Jaren Jackson Jr. or Brandon Clarke, thus, I’m going to buy the Nets low here when they should be 3.5-point favorites. Let’s go to Mo for the results … MO!

The PICK: Nets -1.5
[Bet now at DraftKings. NJ, PA, IN and WV only.]

John Ewing: Bulls at Timberwolves

  • Spread: Wolves -2
  • Over/Under: 23
  • Time: 8 p.m. ET

Bulls-Timberwolves total opened 229 and has moved to 231. Smart money is responsible for the line movement.

At the time of writing, 79% of tickets are on the over, which accounts for 98% of dollars wagered on the total. When there is a larger percentage of dollars than tickets on a game this an indication of sharp action.

Historically, it has been profitable to follow line movement in this situation.

A $100 bettor following this strategy has returned a profit of $5,227 since 2015.

The pros don’t always win, but being on the same side as the sharps is a profitable long term strategy.

The PICK: Over 231.5
[Bet now at DraftKings. NJ, PA, IN and WV only.]

Matt Moore: Pelicans at Mavericks

  • Spread: Mavericks -6
  • Over/Under: 239.5
  • Time: 9:30 p.m. ET

The total on this has dropped four points from open, despite 91% of the money currently on the over. The total was absurdly high at 242.5, and I don’t know that four points is enough to sway me.

But I know this: the Pelicans are 4-0 straight-up this season with a +11.9 spread differential vs. teams that are top-10 in offense and bottom-10 in defense. Dallas is 17th in defense, and seventh in the league since the All-Star break.

I do not believe this is a good defense. I think this is a very bad defense.

I don’t like the moneyline, but I’m getting two possessions on a Pelicans team fighting for its life on a back to back vs. Dallas. The Pelicans are 9-5 on rest disadvantage this season and should Zion Williamson play on the back-to-back as the Pels have indicated, he’ll wreck Kristaps Porzingis at center, who doesn’t have the core strength to keep up.

Throw in a Jrue Holiday opportunity on Luka Doncic and the spread is too high.

THE PLAY: Pelicans +6
[Bet now at DraftKings. NJ, PA, IN and WV only.]

Brandon Anderson: Magic-Heat | Timberwolves-Bulls Parlay

Have you noticed that scoring is up this year? I’m guessing you have. Last night the Timberwolves and Pelicans played a game with the second-highest line in NBA history at 247.5. The final score was 139-134. They covered the second-highest line in NBA history by 25 points.

We’re riding that scoring wave today, and we’re riding the Wolves. They have gone over in 10-of-12 games, bolstered by a wave of hot shooting from D’Angelo Russell, Malik Beasley and others. Their opponent, the Bulls, are over in 11 of their last 14. With a line under 230, peanuts this year really, that looks ripe for the picking.

But why stop there? The Magic have gone over in eight straight games. The Heat have hit over in seven of their past eight. That’s a combined 15-1 over in that stretch, and the Heat over is 20-10 when the Heat are at home this season and 37-23-1. And I know you think both these teams are defensive, but so do the oddsmakers, so the line is only 218, and falling.

Pick one, or both if you like. I’m greedy so I’m grabbing both overs and parlaying them, going for broke. Bring on the points.

The PICK: Magic-Heat Over + Timberwolves-Bulls Over (+264)
[Bet now at DraftKings. NJ, PA, IN and WV only.]

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