Saturday’s Best NBA Player Props: Betting Collin Sexton Points, More
Mike Carter-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Collin Sexton
Prop bets can be a great way to get action on a game. Bookmakers don’t have to worry about taking a lot of action on them, so there isn’t as great an incentive to post a competitive line.
As a result, props can be some of the most exploitable bets on the board.
These props can become downright unfair when you combine them with the FantasyLabs Player Prop tool.
Saturday’s best props focus on three of the slate’s eight games:
- Philadelphia 76ers at Memphis Grizzlies: 8:00 p.m. ET
- Cleveland Cavaliers at Chicago Bulls: 8:00 p.m. ET
- Los Angeles Lakers at Sacramento Kings: 10:00 p.m. ET
Let’s dive right in.
Grizzlies C Marc Gasol
The Pick: Over 7.5 rebounds (-150 at Sportsbook.com)
I don’t get this line at all. Gasol is averaging 8.9 rebounds per game this season, which is more than he’s averaged in every season except for 2009-10. He’s pulled down at least eight rebounds in seven of his last eight games, including each of his last four.
His matchup vs. the 76ers isn’t the easiest from a rebounding perspective, but they’ve been significantly worse on the glass than they were last season. As long as Gasol can avoid foul trouble – which is always a concern against Joel Embiid – I think he’ll cruise past this number.
The over has a Bet Quality of 10 in the FantasyLabs Player Prop tool and is one of my favorite wagers of the day. I’d play this up to -200.
Cavs PG Collin Sexton
The Pick: Over 13.5 points (-135 at Bovada)
The Cavs are going nowhere this season, so they’ve made the decision to insert Sexton into the starting lineup. He played approximately 42 minutes in their last game and has shown the ability to score when given playing time: He’s averaging 15.9 points per 36 minutes through his first 11 games. He’s also in an excellent spot today vs. the Chicago Bulls, who rank just 23rd in defensive efficiency.
Sexton should continue to see huge minutes with George Hill sidelined, so I think this line is pretty exploitable. I’d play it up to -185.
Kings F Nemanja Bjelica
The Pick: Under 13.5 points (-115 at Bovada)
Bjelica had a great run with the Kings early in the season, but it appears his time is coming to an end. He’s averaged just 22.85 minutes of playing time over his past four games, and No. 2 overall pick Marvin Bagley is breathing down his neck.
He still managed to score 14 points in his last game thanks to a 10-point third quarter, but he scored just four total points in the two games prior. He’s shot an unsustainable 52.6% from the field and 48.9% from 3-point range this season, and the combination of reduced minutes and likely shooting regression is creating some value on the under.
It’s certainly possible that Bjelica could fill it up against the Lakers, who rank just 25th in defensive efficiency, but I’m willing to back the under up to -150.