Friday’s Best NBA Player Props: Can Ky Bowman Spark the Warriors’ Offense?
David Berding-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Golden State Warriors guard Ky Bowman (12).
- Friday's massive 10-game NBA slate features three player prop bets offering value.
- This piece will focus on Hornets PF P.J. Washington, Pistons SF Luke Kennard, and Warriors PG Ky Bowman.
Betting on props can be one of the easiest ways to build your bankroll. Sportsbooks tend to offer lower limits and take less action on props than they do on games, so they don’t have as much incentive to post an accurate line.
That’s where our Player Prop tool comes in handy. We compare our industry-leading NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks to identify the best plays each day. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
How about a little reminder on just how impressively these bets did last season? Props with a Bet Quality of 10 posted a win rate of 60.31%, and props with a Bet Quality of nine won at a 58.82% clip.
As is the case with most sports, betting on unders proved to be more profitable than betting on overs last season:
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 10: 341-172 (66.47%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 9: 457-273 (62.6%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 8: 898-589 (60.39%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 7: 1447-1086 (57.13%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 6: 1992-1663 (54.95%)
Overall, if you just blind bet every under with a Bet Quality of eight or higher, you would’ve won at a 62.1% clip on more than 2,700 bets.
Tonight’s props come from three of the slate’s 10 games:
- Charlotte Hornets at Washington Wizards: 7 p.m. ET
- Atlanta Hawks at Detroit Pistons: 7 p.m. ET
- Golden State Warriors at Utah Jazz: 9 p.m. ET
Let’s dive in.
Hornets PF P.J. Washington
THE PICK: Under 10 points (-115)
Washington got off to a great start this season, but his role with the Hornets has dwindled recently. He’s played 18.9 minutes or fewer in three of his past four games, including just 12 minutes in his last contest.
Unsurprisingly, he’s struggled to score given his limited playing time, averaging just seven points per game over those three contests. Washington is currently projected for just 16.3 minutes on today’s slate, and it’s going to be tough for him to exceed 10 points in such a limited amount of minutes.
This is easily my favorite bet of the day. I’d play it up to -175.
[In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
Pistons SF Luke Kennard
THE PICK: Over 3.5 assists (-129)
I don’t really understand this line. Kennard has hit the over on 3.5 assists in 10 of his past 11 games, and he’s carrying one of the largest workloads in basketball at the moment.
He’s played at least 37.5 minutes in five straight games, and he’s in a nice spot today vs. the Atlanta Hawks. They rank just 27th in defensive efficiency this season, and the Pistons’ implied team total of 115.75 represents a significant increase when compared to their season average (107.3).
This line just seems underpriced given Kennard’s recent production and matchup. I’d play the over up to -150.
Warriors PG Ky Bowman
THE PICK: Over 4.5 assists (-125)
Bowman hasn’t exactly thrived as a distributor this season, averaging just 1.9 assists per game. That said, he has a chance to hit the over on his current assist prop through sheer volume.
He played 32 minutes in his last contest, despite the fact that the Warriors lost that game by nearly 50 points. He could see an even larger workload if they can keep today’s contest competitive.
Bowman is basically the only active point guard on the Warriors roster this moment, so I don’t mind betting on Bowman’s assist potential tonight. That said, I wouldn’t play this prop at much higher than -125.
[In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]