Best NBA Player Prop Bets & Picks (Saturday, December 28): Hello, Svi Mykhailiuk
Pictured: Detroit Pistons forward Svi Mykhailiuk (19), Photo Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports
- Saturday's 13-game NBA slate features three player prop bets offering value
- This piece will focus on Bucks PF Ersan Ilyasova, Pistons SF Svi Mykhailiuk, and Kings PF/C Richaun Holmes
Betting on props can be one of the easiest ways to build your bankroll. Sportsbooks tend to offer lower limits and take less action on props than they do on games, so they don’t have as much incentive to post an accurate line.
That’s where our Player Prop tool comes in handy. We compare our industry-leading NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks to identify the best plays each day. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
Odds as of Saturday afternoon. Check out PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
How about a little reminder on just how impressively these bets did last season? Props with a Bet Quality of 10 posted a win rate of 60.31%, and props with a Bet Quality of nine won at a 58.82% clip.
As is the case with most sports, betting on unders proved to be more profitable than betting on overs last season:
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 10: 341-172 (66.47%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 9: 457-273 (62.6%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 8: 898-589 (60.39%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 7: 1447-1086 (57.13%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 6: 1992-1663 (54.95%)
Overall, if you just blind bet every under with a Bet Quality of eight or higher, you would’ve won at a 62.1% clip on more than 2,700 bets.
Tonight’s props come from three of the slate’s five games:
- Orlando Magic at Milwaukee Bucks: 8:30 p.m. ET
- Detroit Pistons at San Antonio Spurs: 8:30 p.m. ET
- Phoenix Suns at Sacramento Kings: 9 p.m. ET
Let’s dive in.
Bucks PF Ersan Ilyasova
THE PICK: Over 7.5 rebounds (-134)
Ilyasova went absolutely nuts yesterday, pulling down 17 rebounds and scoring 18 points on 7-of-8 shooting from the field. While we should obviously expect some regression today, he still figures to see a bump in value given the absence of Giannis Antetokounmpo. Ilyasova moved into the starting lineup in place of Giannis yesterday, and he will likely draw another start today.
Ilyasova has been the Bucks’ best rebounder with both Giannis and Eric Bledsoe off the court this season, leading the team with a rebound rate of 16.2%. That results in an average of 11.7 rebounds per 36 minutes. He probably won’t see that much playing time today, but he doesn’t need to given this line.
This prop is already juiced up pretty heavily, but I think the over holds value up to -150.
Pistons SF Svi Mykhailliuk
THE PICK: Under 10.5 points (-124)
If you’re reading this and wondering “who the hell is Svi Mykhailiuk,” I don’t blame you. He’s playing sparingly for the Pistons this season, averaging just 17.4 minutes per game, but injuries have forced him into a larger role recently. He’s played at least 24.5 minutes in three of his past four games, and he’s scored at least 12 points in all of them.
That said, he should return to his normal workload today. Markieff Morris has been ruled out, but Christian Wood should absorb the majority of his minutes. Overall, we have Mykhailiuk projected for just 18.4 minutes, and it’s hard to see a scenario where he hits the over in such limited playing time.
It’s time to sell high on Svi. I like the under up to -150.
Kings PF/C Richaun Holmes
THE PICK: Over 9.5 rebounds (-104)
Holmes is one of my favorite players to target when he’s expected to see a bump in playing time, and that’s exactly the case today. Marvin Bagley III has been ruled out, and Holmes should be one of the biggest beneficiaries. Holmes leads the team in rebound rate in 22 games without Bagley this season, and he’s averaged 10.6 rebounds per 36 minutes in those contests.
Holmes is also in a wonderful spot vs. the Phoenix Suns. They have been crushed on the glass this season, ranking just 29th in team rebound rate.
This is an awesome combination of matchup and situation. I would play the over up to -135.