NBA Playoffs Player Prop Bets, Picks: 3 Picks for Clippers vs. Suns, Hawks vs. 76ers (Sunday, June 20)
Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Seth Curry.
- Sunday brings two huge games on the NBA front, with the Western Conference Finals beginning and a Game 7 in the East.
- Phoenix hosts the Clippers in Game 1 of their series, while Philadelphia is home to Game 7 of Hawks vs. 76ers.
- See which players Daniel Titus is focusing on today as he makes his favorite player prop bets.
Saturday night brought NBA fans exactly what they’d hoped for: a masterful Game 7 thriller that delivered the NBA’s first overtime in 15 years for a closeout game.
Impressively, the Bucks were able to withstand a 48-point night from Kevin Durant to punch their ticket to the Eastern Conference Finals. Giannis Antetekounmpo led the way for Milwaukee throughout the game, but a Khris Middleton fadeaway, plus Jrue Holiday’s defense on Durant on the final possession, sealed the victory.
With the Nets packing for Cancun, the Bucks will be watching the outcome of the Hawks and Sixers game to see who they’ll face in the Eastern Conference Finals. To kick off Sunday’s slate, the NBA booked Game 1 of the Clippers and Suns Western Conference Finals matchup at 3:30 p.m. ET. Game 7 of the Hawks and Sixers series will be the nightcap, beginning at 8:00 p.m. ET.
The three props that I’m betting on today don’t carry much name notoriety but offer good value relative to their markets. Below, I’ll break down why I’m fading Terance Mann after having the best game of his NBA career, and why I’m trusting in Mikal Bridges to hit a couple of threes along with Seth Curry crushing his combo market in Game 7.
For those who are new to this article, we’ll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
Below, I have laid out three prop bets that I’m playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Terance Mann under 19.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-111)
|Clippers vs. Suns||Suns -4|
|Time | TV||3:30 p.m. ET | ABC|
If you’re unfamiliar with Terance Mann, it’s okay. The 6’5” shooting guard and Florida State alum catapulted into the spotlight in lieu of Kawhi Leonard’s recent knee injury. He’s found success as a starter this year, averaging 11.6 points, 5.6 rebounds and 2.1 assists across 10 games. But his true coming-out party came on Friday night.
His performance in Game 6 of the Western Conference semifinals will go down in the Clipper history books. He set the Clippers franchise playoff record for most points in a quarter (20) and finished the game with a career-high 39 points. He shot 7-for-10 from 3-point range and mounted a 25-point comeback to help the Clippers win the series.
While I am all for riding a hot hand, he’s facing a Phoenix Suns team with the second-best Defensive Rating in the NBA Playoffs (104.7). Mann’s points + rebounds + assists market stands at 19.5, and here’s why I’m taking the under.
Regression is due. Before Game 6 of the Western Conference semifinals, Mann hadn’t eclipsed 19.5 points + rebounds + assists in any game in the playoffs. He played behind Kawhi Leonard, but he was still a part of the rotation, averaging 18 minutes per game in Round 2.
Mann started for Kawhi Leonard against the Phoenix Suns on April 28th and provided 12 points with six rebounds across 34 minutes. Not bad, but keep in mind this is not the Playoffs.
The Suns’ defense has been stifling opposing guards, forcing them to shoot 42.3% from the field through two rounds, the second-lowest percentage among all playoff teams. Similarly, the Suns hold opposing guards to only 8.4 total assists and 17.3 total rebounds per game. These defense metrics are also ranked as the second-lowest amongst playoff teams.
There’s no denying that he showed out in one of the most important games in the Clippers’ playoff history. However, when given starter’s minutes, he surpassed his 19.5 combo market in only five of his 10 starts in the regular season. There needs to be a stronger sample size to buy into the hype, and facing the second-best defense in the playoffs will be a tall order.
The Action Projection Tool has Mann collecting 16.8 points + rebounds + assists in Game 1. The under carries a bet quality rating of 9, supporting the case for some regression.
Mikal Bridges over 1.5 Threes (-132)
|Clippers vs. Suns||Suns -4|
|Time | TV||3:30 p.m. ET | ABC|
Bridges is the X-factor for the Suns. The three-year pro continues to blossom into one of the best two-way players in the NBA. Not only is he a menace on defense, but he has a nice shooting stroke as well. The Villanova alum hit 1.9 3-pointers per game in the regular season, and he’s remained consistent throughout the playoffs.
Through 10 games, he’s hitting 2.0 3-pointers per game at a 36.4% clip. This number dipped slightly from the regular season, where he shot 42.5% from beyond the arc. Don’t let that scare you away. According to Fansure, Bridges has exceeded 1.5 3-pointers made in nine straight games at home, with an average of 2.9 3-pointers over that span. Even though Chris Paul is out, 1.5 3-pointers made is still well within reason for Phoenix forward.
Most would probably assume Chris Paul assisted Bridges the most this season. It makes sense because, after all, he is the point guard and led Phoenix in assists this year. But the playoffs have been a different story. Devin Booker is actually the main shot creator for Bridges. According to PBPStats, Bridges was the beneficiary of 31% (15-of-48) Booker’s assists, tied for the most with Deandre Ayton.
Pulling that thread a bit more, nine of Booker’s 15 assists to Bridges came from 3-point range. With the Suns down their star point guard, Booker will take on a larger role in facilitating the offense. This bodes well for Booker (and Ayton) as they’ve proven to have a strong rapport with Booker.
Additionally, Bridges fared well against the Clippers earlier in the season. In three games versus Los Angeles, he attempted an average of 5.3 3-pointers and nailed an average of 2.0 per contest.
It’s not like the Clippers have a strong track record of defending the 3-point line, either. According to NBA Advanced Stats, the Jazz lit up the Clippers by shooting 40.7% from beyond the arc in the second round. And it wasn’t just their accuracy, but the volume. The Clippers allowed Utah to attempt 23.7 3-pointers in the series, making an average of 9.7 per game.
CP3 out of the lineup will impact the game, but Bridges should still get clean looks from deep. Our projections have Bridges hitting 1.8 3-pointers. 56.1% of his shots are from 3-point range, and I’m buying his potential to knock down two in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals.
Seth Curry over 21.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-125)
|Hawks vs. Sixers||Sixers -7|
|Time | TV||8 p.m. ET | TNT|
I don’t know what’s gotten into Seth Curry lately, but he’s looking eerily similar to his brother, Steph. Over the past two games, he’s dropped 13 3-pointers. For the series, he’s averaging 4.7 triples per game. The distant splash brother is on a torrid pace and is one of the primary reasons Philly is still playing for Game 7.
The Hawks have yet to keep Curry at bay in this series, and based on his recent string of performances, his combo market of 21.5 feels undervalued.
Curry comes into Sunday averaging 21.8 points, 3.3 rebounds, and 2.0 assists in the Eastern Conference semifinals. The mere fact that his points + rebounds + assists line sit at his average for the series is very compelling and hard to pass up.
The seven-year pro is making barbeque chicken out of the Hawks defense. He’s shooting 61.5% from the field through six games with a usage rate of 18.1%. His usage rate at home is slightly higher at 20% in the series.
Despite not needing a ton of volume, he’s doing it all. He’s surpassed 21.5 points + rebounds + assists in six of his last seven games, with an average of 27.9 over that span. And per Fansure, he’s exceeded his 21.5 combo market in four straight games at home with an average of 31.5 across those contests.
It’s Game 7 at home, and the Hawks starting shooting Bogdan Bogdanovic is questionable to play with a knee injury. With no signs of slowing down, this is one hot hand I’m going to ride.
Our Action Projection Tool has Curry producing 22.6 points + rebounds + assists, and there is a good chance he can do this on points alone. His rebounds + assists line is set for 5.5, and our projections have him getting 6.8. Give me the over on Curry’s 21.5 combo market.