Sunday’s Best NBA Player Props: Betting Pascal Siakam Points, More

The player props highlighted below are from Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals on Sunday Night:

• Milwaukee Bucks at Toronto Raptors: 7 p.m. ET on TNT

As a reminder, our FantasyLabs NBA Player Props Tool leverages our projections against odds offered at various sportsbooks and grades each prop on a scale of 1 to 10. All odds as of 4:45 p.m. ET. View live odds here.

Raptors SG Danny Green

The Pick: Under 10.5 points (-125)

Green has been an integral part of the Raptors’ rotation this season, but he’s struggled through the first two games vs. the Milwaukee Bucks.

He’s scored less than 10 points in each contest and has basically been a non-factor offensively. He’s averaged just 5.5 field goal attempts per game after averaging 7.9 during the regular season.

The Raptors are essentially in a must-win spot today, and Head Coach Nick Nurse has hinted at some possible lineup changes. One of them could be Norman Powell entering the starting lineup for Green.

Regardless, Powell should see more minutes in today’s contest, and the majority of those minutes will likely come from Green. Green played just 21.8 minutes in Game 2, and its possible he plays even less today.

I’m selling Green everywhere possible today, and the under on his scoring prop has a Bet Quality of 10 in the Player Prop tool. I’d play it up to -145.

Raptors PF Pascal Siakam

The Pick: Under 18.5 points (-115)

Siakam is likely going to win the Most Improved Player award this season after averaging 16.9 points in 31.9 minutes for the Raptors. That said, his focus in this series is going to have to be primarily on the defensive end of the court. He’s been the Raptors’ go-to option for defending Giannis Antetokounmpo, logging 68 possessions against him over the first two games.

To put that in perspective, Serge Ibaka ranks second on the team with 35 possessions. He’s also done an excellent job against Giannis, holding him to -12.6 points per 100 possessions below his regular season average.

Unfortunately, all that work on Giannis has appeared to take a toll on him on the offensive end of the court. He’s averaged just 11.5 points in this series while shooting just 34.5% from the field. Limiting Giannis should continue to be his primary focus, which makes the under on his scoring prop very appealing on today’s slate.

This line is simply way too high given what we’ve seen through the first two games of the series. I like the under up to -135.

Raptors C Marc Gasol

The Pick: Under 6.5 rebounds (+110)

Another potential change for the Raptors could be inserting Serge Ibaka into the starting lineup at the expense of Gasol. Ibaka already cut into his workload in a big way in Game 2, limiting Gasol to just 19.4 minutes.

Gasol grabbed just five rebounds in that contest, and he could be looking at a similar workload on today’s slate: He’s currently projected for just 24.5 minutes in our NBA Models.

I’m willing to roll the dice on Gasol’s rebounding prop at better than even money, but it stops looking like a value around +100.