Monday’s Best NBA Player Props & Betting Picks (Feb. 3): Fade Paul George vs. the Spurs
Garrett Ellwood/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Paul George (13) of the Los Angeles Clippers.
Betting on props can be one of the easiest ways to build your bankroll. Sportsbooks tend to offer lower limits and take less action on props than they do on games, so they don’t have as much incentive to post an accurate line.
That’s where our Player Prop tool comes in handy. We compare our industry-leading NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks to identify the best plays each day. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
Odds as of Monday afternoon. Check out PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
How about a little reminder on just how impressively these bets did last season? Props with a Bet Quality of 10 posted a win rate of 60.31%, and props with a Bet Quality of nine won at a 58.82% clip.
As is the case with most sports, betting on unders proved to be more profitable than betting on overs last season:
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 10: 341-172 (66.47%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 9: 457-273 (62.6%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 8: 898-589 (60.39%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 7: 1447-1086 (57.13%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 6: 1992-1663 (54.95%)
Overall, if you just blind bet every under with a Bet Quality of eight or higher, you would’ve won at a 62.1% clip on more than 2,700 bets.
Tonight’s props come from three of the slate’s 10 games:
- Boston Celtics at Atlanta Hawks: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Phoenix Suns at Brooklyn Nets: 7:30 p.m. ET
- San Antonio Spurs at Los Angeles Clippers: 10:30 p.m. ET on NBATV
Let’s dive in.
Celtics SF Gordon Hayward
THE PICK: Over 4.5 assists (-114)
Hayward has the potential to provide a lot of value as a distributor tonight. The Celtics are going to be without both Kemba Walker and Marcus Smart, and Hayward has increased his assist rate by a team-high +7.8% with both players off the court. Overall, he’s averaged 5.6 assists per 36 minutes in that situation.
The Celtics also have more scoring upside than usual today vs. the Hawks. Atlanta ranks third in pace and 28th in defensive efficiency, and the Celtics’ implied team total of 115.5 represents a solid increase compared to their season average (112.5).
I think this is an awesome situation to target Hayward, so I’d play this prop up to -130.
Suns C Deandre Ayton
THE PICK: Over 12.5 rebounds (-125)
Ayton is one of the better rebounders in the league — his rebound rate of 19.7% would rank 10th among qualified players — and he’s carrying a massive workload at the moment. He’s logged at least 36 minutes in three of his past five games, and he’s played at least 39.5 minutes in two of them.
He’s in a nice spot today vs. the Nets. They’re actually an above-average team in terms of rebound rate, but they’ve still given up big games in bunches to opposing big men this season. They’ve already allowed 20 players to grab at least 13 rebounds.
I love betting on good rebounders when they’re taking on the Nets, and I like the over on Ayton’s rebound prop up to -140.
Clippers SF Paul George
THE PICK: Under 21.5 points (-120)
George is obviously one of the best scorers in the league, but this line is too high given the amount of minutes he’s playing at the moment. He’s averaged just 22.3 minutes per game since returning from an extended injury absence, and he’s currently projected for just 21.6 minutes in the FantasyLabs NBA Models. He’s scored 21 points or fewer in each of his past two contests, and he’s averaged 22.8 points over 30.1 minutes this season.
George is going to need either a red-hot shooting night or an unexpected bump in playing time to pay the over. I like the under up to -150.