Thursday’s Best NBA Player Props: Betting Kyle Kuzma Points, More
Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Kyle Kuzma
- Thursday's four-game slate features two NBA player props offering value.
- This piece will focus on Lakers PF Kyle Kuzma and Magic C Nikola Vucevic.
Thursday’s best NBA player props focus on two of the slate’s four games:
- Los Angeles Lakers at Houston Rockets: 8 p.m. ET on TNT
- Chicago Bulls at Orlando Magic: 9:30 p.m. ET
As a reminder, you can dig deeper on these and many other prop bets by using our FantasyLabs NBA Player Props Tool. It leverages our projections against five of the most popular online sportsbooks and grades each prop on a scale of one to 10.
Lakers PF Kyle Kuzma
The Pick: Over 20 points (-105)
Kuzma has smashed this line recently, going for at least 20 points in each of his last five games. He’s played at least 34 minutes in each of his last four and has even pushed 40 recently.
That coincides with the absence of Brandon Ingram, who has missed the past week with a sprained ankle. In the six games this season without Ingram and Rajon Rondo, Kuzma has averaged 36.9 minutes, 19.7 field goal attempts and 26 points per game. He’s been great efficiency-wise, too, posting a stellar 62.6% true shooting percentage.
It seems unlikely he’ll slow down against the Rockets, who rank 25th in defensive efficiency this season and are allowing 109.6 points per 100 possessions. This line is definitely too low, and I’d play it up to -150.
Magic C Nikola Vucevic
The Pick: Over 11.5 rebounds (-114)
Vuc has pulled down at least 15 rebounds in two of his last three games, and he’s been in the single digits just twice since mid-November. The dude has been playing out of his mind this season.
And, man, does he have an incredible matchup on Thursday night. The Magic will face the Bulls, who have been one of the league’s worst teams over the last couple of weeks. In terms of rebounding, they’re especially bad: On the season, they rank 29th in overall rebound rate and dead last by a mile in offensive rebound rate.
That last stat is particularly important. The Bulls also rank last by a mile in offensive efficiency this season, scoring just 97.8 points/100. Think about how bad the Suns have been — the Bulls somehow have worse stats. So, they can’t score to save their lives, and they can’t get an offensive rebound on top of that.
Know what that means? Lots and lots of rebounds for Vuc. I’d bet this to -140.