The Cleveland Cavaliers (0-2) and Indiana Pacers (2-0) will face off in Game 3 of their second round NBA Playoff series tonight. Tipoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET at the Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Indiana. The game will broadcast live on ESPN.
The Cavaliers are 5-point favorites over the Pacers on the spread (Cavaliers -5), with the over/under set at 230.5 total points. Cleveland is a -205 favorite to win outright, while Indiana is +170 to pull off the upset.
It’s the last stand for the Cavaliers. No team has ever come back from down 3-0 in a playoff series. They are already facing a steep uphill climb, with teams who fall behind 0-2 at home just 5-38 over the course of NBA history.
Things are not going well for the Cavs right now. Can Cleveland turn it around on the road? Or will Indiana's impressive run continue in Game 3 tonight? Let's get into my Cavaliers vs. Pacers predictions and NBA picks on Friday, May 9.
Cavaliers vs Pacers Prediction, Picks for NBA Playoffs Game 3
My Pacers vs. Cavaliers Game 3 best bet is on Aaron Nesmith Over 12.5 Points, with the best line currently available at BetMGM. But as always, make sure to shop for the best price using our live NBA odds page.
My Pick: Aaron Nesmith Over 12.5 Points (-120)
Cavaliers vs Pacers Betting Odds for Friday, May 9
| Cavaliers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5 -110 | 230.5 -110o / -110u | -205 |
| Pacers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5 -110 | 230.5 -110o / -110u | +170 |
- Cavaliers vs. Pacers spread: Cavaliers -5
- Cavaliers vs. Pacers over/under: 230.5 total points
- Cavaliers vs. Pacers moneyline: Cavaliers -205, Pacers +170
- Cavaliers vs. Pacers best bet:Aaron Nesmith Over 12.5 Points (-120)
Cleveland Cavaliers vs Indiana Pacers Game 3 Preview
Darius Garland, Evan Mobley, and De'Andre Hunter are all questionable for Game 3 tonight.
The Pacers have won six of their last seven playoff games. Donovan Mitchell played a bruising and exhausting set of minutes in the previous matchup of this series.
Do not bet the side. OK, I’ve already bet the side. But I had a good reason. You should not bet the side.
So, I make this game Pacers -0.1 with both teams full strength, based on regular-season numbers and a tiny sample of playoff pepper, basically a pick‘em.
The Cavaliers are not full strength. It’s possible that everyone plays for the Cavaliers. But if any of the players in question are unavailable, this number is more than 2.5 points wrong, since Cleveland has been steamed to -5 in the market.
That’s enough for me to take the Pacers on the moneyline, since I think it’s a coin flip at full strength. The Cavs may not be fully healthy, and the market thinks it’s 59/41.
Now, I may be missing out on a better number. If everyone plays for the Cavaliers, they could move upwards of more than a possession. But I’m willing to take that chance.
You should wait so you know what you’re betting into.
If Garland is out, well, the Cavaliers already had a chance to win each of the first two games without him.
If Mobley is out, that is pretty bad for their chances given his importance defensively and on the glass, where the Pacers racked up extra chance points to close the previous matchup.
If De'Andre Hunter is out, that means they have to rely on the other more dubious wing options, many of whom have been destroyed in their minutes so far.
If the Cavaliers are suddenly fully healthy, I still can’t sign off on a Cleveland bet, given the number and how good I think the Pacers are. But I can understand it. However, if the Cavs are anything less than 100% healthy, this should be a play on Indiana.
There is the letdown effect if everyone’s out. If all three are out, and this moves to Pacers -2.5 or more (unlikely), then I’ll want Cavaliers.
But in general, while I like the spot for the Cavs, the Pacers did not need extreme outcomes in order to steal two wins in Cleveland. They’ve just been good enough to capitalize on Cleveland's weaknesses.
The total breezed over the number last time out with 239 points to the 229.5 line. It’s back at 230.5 heading into Game 3 tonight.
The Cavaliers just have not been able to find a formula capable of slowing down Indiana, who owns a 125 offensive rating through two games.
The Pacers are attacking off makes for Cleveland, and quickly get into their sets while the Cavs celebrate made shots.
The Cavaliers simply cannot get stops. Atkinson has chosen to play Merrill, and that has not gone well. They have a 129 defensive rating with Merrill on-court in this series. Unless Atkinson makes major adjustments, the Pacers will continue to hunt him.
I still project Game 3 to stay under the total based on full-season numbers, but don’t feel overly confident in it.
Cavaliers vs Pacers Game 3 Betting Predictions
Aaron Nesmith Over 12.5 Points
Nesmith has gone over in six straight playoff games.
The Cavaliers have to pay so much attention to Tyrese Haliburton and Pascal Siakam that Nesmith is finding all the cracks in the defense.
He has scored 17 and 24 points in this series so far, but the line hasn’t moved.
Andrew Nembhard Over 18.5 Points + Assists
Nembhard had almost double the pick-and-roll possessions of Tyrese Haliburton in Game 2.
Whether that was because of Haliburton’s wrist, the more aggressive coverage the Cavs are bringing on Halibuton, or some other game plan wrinkle, it meant a lot more usage for Nembhard.
The Cavs are playing drop defense in pick-and-roll, which opens up the midrange for Nembhard, and he’s reliable from there.
Factor in his ability to string out the defense to force help and then pass out, and I like this line in which he’s gone over in four straight outings, including both games in this series.
Jarrett Allen Under 26.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
(conditional on Mobley availability)
This is a soft play if Mobley does give it a go. The Cavs might have to go to a single-big lineup in this series, and Mobley is a much better fit.
You can switch ably with him on Haliburton. So, you don’t have to get in rotation, and he can recover on Myles Turner as well.
This is much more of an Evan Mobley series than an Allen series, and if they have to go with one big, Mobley will get the majority.
Cavaliers vs Pacers Best Bets for Game 3
- Aaron Nesmith Over 12.5 Points (-120)
- Andrew Nembhard Over 18.5 Points + Assists (-125)
- Jarrett Allen Under 26.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-120)
For the latest on NBA injuries, be sure to check out our NBA Injury Report page.
