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NBA Betting Tip: 3 Winning Stratgies for Betting Over/Unders in the NBA Playoffs

Apr 15, 2019 4:58 PM EDT
Credit:

Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry

  • Unders have started 8-0 in the 2019 NBA Playoffs.
  • Using Bet Labs, we identify three scenarios in which it has been profitable to bet the under in the postseason.

Life is too short to bet unders. If you share that mentality, the opening round of the NBA Playoffs has been brutal. For the first time since at least 2005, unders have started 8-0 in the postseason — going under the total by an average of 15.8 points per game.

Casual bettors tend to wager on the over because it is more fun to cheer for points than defense. But after the low-scoring opening games put a dent in the public’s bankroll, recreational gamblers will be looking to wager on more unders.

It would be unwise to bet the under in every game, but here are three tips to identify NBA Playoff games with potentially profitable unders:

Previous Game Went Under

Since 2005, if a team’s previous game went under, the under in its next playoff game went 314-276-7 (53.2%). This strategy has been most profitable in the first round — 183-139-3 (56.8%) — according to Bet Labs.

One explanation for unders hitting is that the public will expect an offensive bounce back and for teams to score at a higher rate in the following game. Oddsmakers anticipate this reaction and will inflate the lines making it easier for the under to hit.

Line Decreases