Thursday NBA Player Prop Bets & Picks: Fade Nuggets Role Players in Game 4 (Sept. 24)
Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images. Pictured: Michael Porter Jr.
- The Denver Nuggets have been competitive in this Western Conference finals series in large part because of stars.
- Brandon Anderson expects that trend continue on both sides in Game 4.
- Check out the three props he's betting in tonight's Lakers-Nuggets matchup.
Betting on props can be one of the easiest ways to build your bankroll, especially in the NBA postseason. Sportsbooks tend to offer lower limits and take less action on props than they do on games, so they don’t have as much incentive to post an accurate line.
That’s where our Player Prop tool comes in handy. We compare our industry-leading NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks to identify the best plays each day. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
|Win-Loss (Win Pct)|
|Bet Quality of 10||775-572 (57%)|
|Bet Quality of 9||942-776 (54%)|
|Bet Quality of 8||1432-1263 (52%)|
Thursday’s player props come from Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals:
- Los Angeles Lakers vs Denver Nuggets at 9:00 p.m. ET on TNT
NBA Player Prop Bets
Denver Nuggets, Michael Porter Jr.
The Prop: Under 10.5 points (-110)
Unlike a Miami rookie shining brightly in the Eastern Conference Finals, Michael Porter Jr. has seen his role muted as the series goes on. He played 29 minutes in Game 1 but averaged only 21 MPG over the last two, when it was close. Denver has seen great play from Jerami Grant and Paul Millsap, and that’s just not leaving much time for MPJ or his unreliable defense.
Porter is averaging 11.4 points in 24.3 minutes this postseason. He’s producing when out there, but it’s time for the big boys now, and Denver has needed as much Millsap and Grant defense as they can get, even at the expense of Porter’s scoring ability.
Porter is still averaging 12.7 PPG this series, but he’s scored under 10.5 points in eight of 17 postseason games. If you dig a little deeper, you see that Porter played at least 29 minutes five times and averaged 17.0 PPG in those contests. Take them away and now Porter is under 10.5 points in eight of 12 games. I’m fading Porter’s scoring and will play to -125.
Denver Nuggets, Michael Porter Jr.
The Prop: Under 6.5 rebounds (-134)
But we won’t stop with one Porter under tonight.
The Lakers came out flat and uninspired in Game 3, and it took them until the fourth quarter before they finally upped their energy enough to make it a game. One of the easiest ways to see that is the disparity on the boards. The Lakers won the rebounding battle 78-68 over the first two games but got hammered in Game 3, losing 44-25 on the glass.
Anthony Davis didn’t even have a rebound at all until the fourth quarter!
Rebounding is about plenty of things, but effort ranks high on the list, and the Lakers just didn’t play with enough effort. Like another Los Angeles team team, the Lakers played like they had this series won already but got a real wake-up check by way of a Denver loss. Expect the Lakers to come out much stronger on the boards in Game 4, and with Michael Porter Jr. matched up against stronger, bigger, veteran players, that could often push him off the ball.
And remember, Porter’s minutes have fallen as this series has gone on. Rebounding is about effort but it’s also about opportunity, and it’s hard to get boards from the bench. Porter has only 10 rebounds the last two games combined when his minutes have been reduced and not mostly in garbage time.
Porter is an elite rebounder, but it’s a steep task ahead against a Lakers team that should be far more focused in Game 4. If you’re fading Porter’s points, you’re fading his time on the court and may as well play the rebounds too. I’ll play this one to -150.
Denver Nuggets, Gary Harris
The Prop: Under 8.5 points (+100)
Near the end of the Clippers series, Gary Harris became absolutely central to Denver. Over the final two games, he played almost 40 minutes a game and scored 30 points combined.
Harris hasn’t found the same rhythm or role against a bigger Lakers team. He’s down to 27.5 MPG and has scored only 15 points total in three games against the Lakers, even losing key minutes at times to P.J. Dozier.
Harris doesn’t get to the line much and typically gets around six or seven shots a game, the majority from three. Harris has fewer than two 3s in eight of his 12 postseason games. If he gets fewer than two 3s tonight, he’d have to score six points in other ways to hit the over here, and he’s just not doing that. Harris is averaging 1.4 free throws and 1.3 twos per game.
The math just doesn’t add up. Unless Harris hits a handful of threes, the scoring has not been there, especially against the Lakers. I like this prop up to -125. And if you prefer the over instead, you might think about playing for a Nuggets win too. Denver is 5-2 in Harris’s best scoring games this postseason.