NBA Sharp Report: Pros, Joes Agree on Monday’s Over/Unders

NBA Sharp Report: Pros, Joes Agree on Monday’s Over/Unders article feature image
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Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Luka Doncic and Sindarius Thornwell

  • Tonight's NBA slate features some exceptionally high over/unders, and bettors, both sharp and square, have taken notice.
  • Money percentages and Sports Insights' Bet Signals help reveal which way the smart money is going.

Tonight’s NBA slate features some pretty, pretty high over/unders. In fact, of Monday’s 11 matchups, nine opened with totals of at least 220, and five opened in the 230s.

High totals can lead to some interesting reactions from public bettors, who generally love to bet overs. For the most part they’ve still been willing to take the high numbers tonight, and sharps have been right there with them.

Portland Trail Blazers @ Cleveland Cavaliers

7 p.m. ET

Sharp angle: Over (moved from 221.5 to 225)

Two-thirds of bettors have taken the over in this matchup, which opened at 221.5. It’s now all the way up to 225, which is more of a move than simply reacting to a group of Joe Publics.

Looking at money percentages, though, it becomes fairly clear that sharps are among the majority on the over.

Eighty-two percent of actual money being wagered on the total has hit the over, meaning it’s drawing significantly bigger bets than the under. And since sharps are more likely to be betting larger amounts than squares, that discrepancy points to smart money on the over.

Sports Insights’ Bet Signals — which are triggered by market-wide movement caused by sharp action — also point toward an over lean.

Philadelphia 76ers @ New Orleans Pelicans

8 p.m. ET

Sharp angle: Over (moved from 238 to 240.5)

While sharps and squares have been on the same page for the most part on tonight’s high totals, here’s the one case in which they aren’t. It’s probably no coincidence that this is also the highest number on the slate.

Only 41% of bets have hit this over, but the number has moved from 238 up to 240.5, making it tied for the seventh highest of the season (so far, totals of more than 240 have gone 3-4 to the over).

That movement on its own should tell you that sharps are hitting the over, but money percentages and an SI Bet Signal make it even more clear.

The 41% of bettors on the over have generated an impressive 88% of actual money being wagered, once again revealing where the bigger, probably sharper bets are going. We’ve also tracked one Bet Signal today, though it’s worth noting that it came at a total of 237, prior to the drastic line move.

Dallas Mavericks @ Los Angeles Clippers

10:30 p.m. ET

Sharp angle: Over (moved from 224 to 229.5)

Similar to the first play listed, this total has risen drastically from its opening number. It also has attracted a solid majority of bets — 65% to be exact — but that’s not going to cause a 5.5-point move on its own … unless wiseguys get involved.

As has been the case with the other games on tonight’s card, those bettors have accounted for a significantly higher percentage of money. In this case, though, they’ve accounted for almost all of the money.

It’s important to note that this is the latest game on tonight’s slate, meaning it should drive plenty more action until tip, which tends to even out percentages a bit. But at the time of writing, 97% of dollars have hit this over.

A Sports Insights Bet Signal has also hit the over, confirming sharp action at a 225 total.