NBA Sharp Report: Smart Money Hitting Raptors-Rockets, 4 Other Friday Games
Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: James Harden
- Sharp action has hit five games on tonight's NBA slate, including Raptors-Rockets at 8 p.m. ET (ESPN).
- Sports Insights' Bet Signals and betting market percentages help reveal the plays wiseguys are making.
Most weeknights this time of year, it’s college hoops that dominates the betting scene. On Fridays with lighter college slates, that spotlight lands on the NBA.
Of the 10 NBA games tonight, five have drawn the attention of sharp bettors, including the matchup of the night: Raptors at Rockets (8 p.m. ET, ESPN).
Miami Heat @ Cleveland Cavaliers
7 p.m. ET | SUN
Sharp angle: Under (moved from 210 to 208)
Opening at 210, this was tied for the lowest total on Friday’s NBA slate. Perhaps scared by the low number (or simply looking to root for offense) most bettors, 63% to be exact, have taken a liking to the over.
Despite that, this total has fallen from 210 down to 208, and even as far as 207.5 at a number of spots thanks to some wiseguy activity.
The 37% of bets on the under have generated 71% of actual money being wagered. Not only does that create a liability for sportsbooks, it also reveals that the under is drawing the significantly bigger bets — ones more likely to be made by pros.
Confirming that indication have been three Sports Insights Bet Signals, the most recent two of which came at a total of 209.
New York Knicks @ Brooklyn Nets
7:30 p.m. ET | MSG
Sharp angle: Knicks (moved from +10.5 to +9)
Using Sports Insights’ Bet Signals for measurement would suggest that the Knicks are sharpest play of the night. They’ve drawn five Signals — more than any other team tonight — and have seen some significant line movement in their favor despite essentially split betting percentages.
The 51% of bettors on New York have accounted for 57% of dollars, however, which — along with the Bet Signals — has forced oddsmakers to bring this line down significantly from its opener.
Toronto Raptors @ Houston Rockets
8 p.m. ET | ESPN
Sharp angle: Raptors (moved from -1.5 to -3)
With 72% of bets hitting Toronto, it’s unclear how much of this line move is a result of simple liability and how much is a result of sharp action.
What is clear, though, is that sharps have had something to do with the Raptors’ move from -1.5 to -3.
The large majority of bets on Toronto have made up for an even larger majority of dollars on the road favorite (80%), meaning bigger bettors are putting their money behind Kawhi Leonard and company.
The Raptors have also triggered four SI Bet Signals, confirming that sharps are on their side. And for what it’s worth, the Sports Insights Line Predictor tool is projecting this line to continue its movement toward Toronto.
Sacramento Kings @ Memphis Grizzlies
8 p.m. ET | NBCS-CA
Sharp angle: Grizzlies (moved from pick’em to -2.5)
As was the case with the Heat-Cavs under, the Grizzlies have been an unpopular pick Friday night. They’re drawing just 31% of bettors tonight against the Kings, but have gone from a pick’em all the way to 2.5-point favorites.
Part of the reason has been their slightly higher percentage of money (36%), indicating that bigger bets are landing on Memphis. The real kicker, though, has once again been the Bet Signals.
Four signals have hit the Grizzlies, including one at -2 to push the line to its current number.
Detroit Pistons @ Dallas Mavericks
8:30 p.m. ET | FS-DET
Sharp angle: Under (moved from 210 to 207.5)
The other total to open at 210 has also attracted pros to the under. This one, however, has also drawn the majority of the public.
Sixty-one percent of bets are hitting the under, which by itself wouldn’t be enough to cause a 2.5-point move. Those bets are generating almost all of the money being wagered on the total, though.
At the time of writing, 95% of actual dollars are on the under which has given oddsmakers no choice but to drop this number.
To pile on, sharps have hit the under four times per SI Bet Signals, most recently at 208.5.