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NBA Sharp Report: Wiseguys Fading Warriors Thursday Night

Nov 08, 2018 4:00 PM EST
  • Sharps are betting a pair of NBA games on Thursday night, headlined by Milwaukee Bucks-Golden State Warriors (10:30 p.m. ET, TNT).
  • Wiseguys are also getting down on Los Angeles Clippers-Portland Trail Blazers (10 p.m. ET, NBC Sports NW).

The 2018-19 NBA season is now three weeks old. So far, it’s been a profitable start for contrarian bettors. Overall, dogs have gone 84-75 against the spread (ATS).

Meanwhile, teams getting less than 40% of spread bets have gone 53-40 (57%) ATS, winning +10.69 units. Tonight, sharp bettors see a small board offering a pair of valuable contrarian opportunities.

After analyzing Thursday’s four-game slate using Sports Insights’ Sportsbook Insider Pro betting tools, I’ve pinpointed two NBA bets that professionals are focusing on, starting at 10 p.m. and 10:30 p.m. ET.


Betting Terms to Know

Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.

Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.

Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.

Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.

Full Sports Betting Glossary


Los Angeles Clippers at Portland Trail Blazers

10 p.m. ET

Sharp angle: Clippers (+5.5)

The public loves favorites, home teams and teams laying short spreads. They also love betting teams with better records than their opponents. Damian Lillard and the Blazers check off all the boxes tonight.

The Blazers (8-3) opened as five-point favorites against the Clippers (6-4). Heavy public betting on Portland (76% of bets), pushed the line up to Blazers -6.

That’s when sharps got down hard on the Clippers at an inflated, undervalued price.

Pros at Carib hammered Clippers +5.5 early. Later in the day, wiseguys at 5Dimes jumped on the Clips +6. As a result of these reverse line moves, the line has leveled out at LAC +5.5 despite the overwhelming Blazers betting.

The Clippers also fit two valuable Bet Labs Systems: Small NBA Road Dogs Against Public on the spread (58.5% ATS since 2005) and on the Moneyline (+93.42 units, 8.2% ROI since 2005).

An added cherry on top for Clips backers: all three refs are “away” refs. Since 2005, home teams have lost more than 35.86 units combined with Kevin Scott, Sean Wright and Jonathan Sterling calling fouls.

Milwaukee Bucks at Golden State Warriors

10:30 p.m. ET

Sharp angle: Bucks (+6)

No Draymond Green? No problem!

Despite the Warriors (10-1) being without one of their key starters and facing an elite opponent, Average Joes are still pounding Dub Nation, no questions asked.

This heavy bias has created a rare contrarian opportunity for sharps to buy low on Giannis and the 8-2 Bucks getting a handful of points.

Despite receiving 77% of spread bets, the Golden State line has remained frozen at -6. In fact, it’s even dipped to -5.5 throughout the day. This signals sharp liability on the Greek Freak and company.

Pros at 5Dimes and the Greek all hammered Milwaukee +6, triggering three separate steam and reverse line moves.

Just like the Clippers, the Bucks fit the same two Bet Labs systems: Small NBA Road Dogs Against Public on the spread (58.5% ATS since 2005) and on the Moneyline (+93.42 units, 8.2% ROI since 2005).


Looking for more in-depth betting analysis? Sign up for a Sports Insights Pro trial and join our Live Betting Hangouts where we break down the board every weeknight from 6:30-7 p.m. ET.

Credit:

Stephen Curry. Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

Follow Josh Appelbaum on Twitter
@Josh_Insights

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SCHEDULE
OPEN
CURR
# BETS
215.5
-2.5
217
-4
234
-3.5
236.5
-4
216.5
-14
217.5
-14
-9.5
230
-7.5
226
215
-8.5
215
-9
-9
220
-9.5
221.5
211.5
-2
217
+1
226
-6
224.5
-7
216
-1
219
-1
216.5
-7
215.5
-5.5
199.5
-2.5
200
-2.5
220
-9.5
222.5
-9
222.5
-1
223
-1