NBA Summer League Betting: Finding Value in Tuesday’s Championship Game

Jul 17, 2018 2:56 PM EDT
  • The NBA Vegas Summer League wraps up tonight with the championship game.
  • The Lakers and Blazers have been easily the best teams in Vegas, evidenced by their record and point differential.
  • Portland has a deeper roster and thus could provide betting value as the underdog tonight.

As mentioned in our inaugural Summer League piece last Friday, it’s been highly profitable the past two seasons to bet underdogs and overs.

  • Favorites: 66-117-5 ATS, -30.0% ROI, -$5,636 lost for a $100/unit bettor
  • Dogs: 117-66-5 ATS, +22.5% ROI, +$4,227 won for a $100/unit bettor
  • Over: 107-77-4, +12.0% ROI, +$2,252 won for a $100/unit bettor
  • Under: 77-107-4, -19.4% ROI, -$3,638 lost for a $100/unit bettor

Yesterday I eschewed the long-term trends of underdogs and got burned: While the favorites won, the dogs each covered by a point. Today we’re going back to the underdog, which I actually think is the superior team. It’s always nice when that happens. Anyway, let’s dive in …


Portland Trail Blazers vs. LA Lakers (-2) | O/U: 178

10 p.m. ET

  • The two best teams this summer are meeting in tonight’s final game. The Lakers are a perfect 6-0 in Vegas with an outstanding +13.7 point differential. The only team with a better point differential is the Blazers (+14.0), who are also 6-0 this summer.
  • The Lakers won by three points last night against the Cavs, and they kept a very short rotation. Alex Caruso ended up not playing (watch for news on him tonight), and so the rest of the starting five all played more than 30 minutes apiece. Josh Hart solidified his Summer League MVP status, going off for 37 points and nine rebounds in 34 minutes. They really needed him: He took 28 total shots, and 15 of those were from behind the arc.
  • The Blazers, meanwhile, kept their minutes how they’ve been. Only Caleb Swanigan got 30 minutes, and just four other guys played more than 20. Again, their roster depth this summer is ridiculous: Swanigan, Zach Collins, Jake Layman, Wade Baldwin, Georgios Papagiannis, KJ McDaniels, and Gary Trent Jr. all have legit (or have already solidified) shots at an NBA rotation. Anfernee Simons didn’t play, but the depth is still amazing, and I’d venture to say they won’t be as tired tonight as Hart & Co.
  • I’m taking the points here, because of the tired legs but also because I think the Blazers just have the superior roster. Hart is probably the best player in tonight’s game, and he could certainly go crazy and win it for LA, but look for Portland’s lack of weaknesses up and down the roster to win out tonight.

Lean: Blazers +2

Credit:

Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Wade Baldwin

Follow Bryan Mears on Twitter
@bryan_mears

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