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Wiseguys Blitzing Wednesday’s Pacers-Knicks Over/Under

Oct 31, 2018 7:06 PM EDT
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Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports Pictured: New York Knicks head coach David Fizdale

  • Professionals are betting Wednesday's matchup between the Indiana Pacers and New York Knicks (8 p.m. ET on ESPN).
  • Using The Action Network's betting tools, we break down how sharps are playing tonight's Pacers-Knicks matchup.

This story is usually part of our EDGE subscription but is free for all to read today!


Wednesday’s Indiana Pacers-New York Knicks over/under opened at 211.5, and that was the lowest opening NBA total of the day!

Overs are 61-41-1 (59.8%) heading into tonight’s slate of games, providing a profit of 17.13 units and a return of investment (ROI) of +16.6% for anyone blindly betting them this season, according to our Bet Labs data.

As we know, recreational bettors gravitate toward betting overs because action-packed, high-scoring games are simply more fun to root for than games filled with long-drawn-out possessions and missed shots.

Sportsbooks don’t like losing, and in situations like these, react by shading lines in order to force bettors into taking the popular side at worse numbers.

For example, knowing the recent trend of games going over, oddsmakers will bump totals up a few points higher than their ratings imply, knowing bettors will bet overs no matter the line.

From a high-level, this practice offers value for bettors willing to take the unpopular side.

Overs have steadily hit early this season and regression is surely coming at some point, but have oddsmakers adjusted enough?

Using The Action Network’s betting tools, let’s analyze how professional bettors are approaching tonight’s Pacers-Knicks matchup (8 p.m. ET on ESPN).

Recreational bettors are clearly going back to the “over well,” as 73% of tickets wagered on the total are taking the over. However, the over/under has plummeted from 211.5 to 206.5, at the time of writing (check updated odds here).

The Action Network’s public betting data is reporting that while more than three-fourths of the bets are on the over, 65% of the money wagered is coming in on the under.

Not only is there more money on the under overall, but sharp bettors are also expecting a low-scoring game.

Sports Insights’ Bet Signals — which track professional betting action in real-time — have triggered three Reverse Line Moves and two Steam Moves on the under, revealing that steady wiseguy money is responsible for the big move on the total.

Recreational bettors are blindly taking tonight’s Pacers-Knicks over. However, savvy bettors capable of moving lines are aligned on the under.

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