Although most of the series in the first round of the NBA playoffs have been fairly one-sided, Spurs-Nuggets has been anything but. In fact, we have ourselves the first and only Game 7 of Round 1 this year later tonight. They're giving them away like candy in the NHL, but the NBA is stingy when it comes to these do-or-die affairs.
The pro bettors aren't going to let this rare occurrence slip through the cracks, especially considering how heavily it will be bet. There could be a lot of casual bettors tossing a few bucks down that normally wouldn't. Saturday night, Game 7, nationally televised game, perhaps a little alcohol in the system: This is shaping up to be a perfect storm for public bets.
Although they could get more active later today to counteract the influx of casual bets, sharps have already been pretty convincing on one particular play.
For the fifth consecutive game in this series, the sharp bettors really like the under. It's not as if they've been cashing left and right, either, as the over has gone 3-1 in the previous four games. However, the pros clearly believe that books are opening these totals on the high side. They've been incorrect in this small sample, but if they believe that they'd win 55 out of 100 times, they'd make this bet every time.
After opening between 210 and 211, the over/under has dropped down two full points at most books and can now be found between 208 and 209.
Sixty-five percent of bettors expect the high-scoring ways to continue and have taken the over, but more than half the cash is on the under. Furthermore, a steam move was triggered on the under just a short time ago at 10 a.m. ET.
Pro bettors have a way of leaving previous losses in the past. Just because something didn't work the other day doesn't mean it won't today. It's all about long-term success. As my colleague Josh Appelbaum always says, betting is a marathon, not a sprint.
