Is Steph Curry Undervalued in the Betting Market?

Is Steph Curry Undervalued in the Betting Market? article feature image
Credit:

Photo credit: Mike DiNovo-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Stephen Curry

  • Golden State Warriors PG Stephen Curry will miss tonight's game against the Los Angeles Clippers (10:30 p.m. ET) with a groin injury. The Warriors are currently 3.5-point road favorites with the over/under at 225.5.
  • Curry is thought to be worth about 3-4 points the spread, according to bookmakers.
  • Based on advanced metrics and the Warriors' ATS and over/under record, he's being undervalued by the betting market.

In general, I think the public largely overvalues how much a single NBA player is worth to the spread or over/under.

“LeBron’s out? Oh, the Lakers are gonna lose by 20.”

In reality, sportsbooks peg even the best NBA players as worth about 4-5 points to the spread. We got two on the record before the season, and they both had just a couple players in that elite tier worth five points to the spread.

But are there situations in which the betting market is incorrect? Remember, books aren’t incentivized to correctly peg the value of the player — they’re incentivized to create equal action on both sides of the line and make money off the vig.

That means the market could deem someone like Steph Curry as worth five points the spread, but perhaps that’s underrating him. I’d argue that’s actually the case.

How would you rate this article?

Top Offers

Action Newsletter
Sign Up >
The top betting news and picks for all the big games delivered directly to your inbox daily.
Action Podcasts
Listen >
The award-winning Action Network Podcast covers all angles of betting and DFS from industry-leading pros.
Betting 101
Bet Smarter >
New to betting? No sweat. Check out our betting education hub, which ranges from beginner tips to advanced strategies.
Sports Betting Legalization
Predictions >
When will sports betting be legal in your state? Check our our projections for all 50 states.
Betting Calculators
Try Now >
Easily calculate your winnings for straight bets and parlays using American, Decimal, or Fractional odds.
Expert Picks
Best Bets >
See all of the bets Action Network experts are making in real-time, covering the big games and the hidden gems.

Top Stories