- Golden State Warriors PG Stephen Curry will miss tonight's game against the Los Angeles Clippers (10:30 p.m. ET) with a groin injury. The Warriors are currently 3.5-point road favorites with the over/under at 225.5.
- Curry is thought to be worth about 3-4 points the spread, according to bookmakers.
- Based on advanced metrics and the Warriors' ATS and over/under record, he's being undervalued by the betting market.
In general, I think the public largely overvalues how much a single NBA player is worth to the spread or over/under.
“LeBron’s out? Oh, the Lakers are gonna lose by 20.”
In reality, sportsbooks peg even the best NBA players as worth about 4-5 points to the spread. We got two on the record before the season, and they both had just a couple players in that elite tier worth five points to the spread.
But are there situations in which the betting market is incorrect? Remember, books aren’t incentivized to correctly peg the value of the player — they’re incentivized to create equal action on both sides of the line and make money off the vig.
That means the market could deem someone like Steph Curry as worth five points the spread, but perhaps that’s underrating him. I’d argue that’s actually the case.