Thunder vs. Clippers Betting Odds & Pick (Friday, Aug. 14): Fade OKC Without CP3

Thunder vs. Clippers Betting Odds & Picks

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The Oklahoma City Thunder and the Los Angeles Clippers square off in a matchup where both teams have already ruled out a couple players, will this just be a battle of the benches?

Oklahoma City Thunder

The Thunder have three players listed on the injury report at the time of this writing: Chris Paul (Out – hand), Dennis Schroder (Out – personal), and Luguentz Dort (Out – knee). Keep a look out for the status of Steven Adams, Danilo Gallinari, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in case they are held out of this game to rest up for the upcoming series against the Rockets.

The Thunder have been respectable in the bubble as they enter this contest 4-3 straight up and against the spread. However, based on data from Cleaning the Glass, they were -1.7 in average spread differential based on Vegas spreads. This is in contrast to their +1.8 spread differential during the regular season and league-best ATS record in the NBA (44-27-0), per Bet Labs.

Paul truly should have received more MVP consideration this season. The Thunder were +6.7 points per 100 possessions with him on the court and -7.2 with him off, per Cleaning the Glass. That's a 13.9 point differential!

An absolutely incredible impact. Additionally, the Thunder play about one possession per game faster without Paul on the court, per NBA.com.

Los Angeles Clippers

The Clippers have three players listed on the injury report at the time of this writing: Patrick Beverly (Out – calf), Montrezl Harrell (Out – personal), and Landry Shamet (Out – foot). I will be shocked if Kawhi Leonard is not limited or held out of this game. Additionally keep an eye on the status of Paul George.

The Clippers are also 4-3 SU in the bubble but 5-2 ATS with a +2.8 spread differential which is better than their regular season +0.8 spread differential. Looking at the Clippers pace statistics from NBA.com, they play faster without Beverly, Harrell, Shamet, and Kawhi.

What's absolutely incredible, though, is the Clippers only have two players with negative net ratings when they are on the court and they have played a grand total of 130 minutes this season. This team has depth and they are poised for a playoff run.

Betting Analysis & Pick

I think there is value on the Thunder's team total under given the uncertainty. They are dramatically worse without Paul and this Clippers team has a top-five defense, per NBA.com.

The Clippers are too well rounded to fade even their bench and with the Thunder's splits with and without CP3, I will fade their offense in this matchup.

Betting LEAN: Thunder Under 108.5 Team Total (-108)