Gone are the days when a 240-point NBA over/under was breaking news. Hell, we've had 23 of them this season alone, not to mention the 17 from last season.
Now the news teams (do we get to call ourselves that?) come out only for the 245-and-up crowd. It also helps when a historically high total attracts a bit of action from sharp bettors …
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Timberwolves vs. Pelicans Over/Under, Sharp Betting
As it stands now, tonight's Timberwolves-Pelicans total is in shape to be the second-highest we've ever tracked (the Bet Labs database goes back to 2005). At the time of writing, it sits at 247.5, which would be smack in the middle of the No. 1 and 2 spots on the list.
Highest NBA Over/Unders (since 2005)
- 250.5: Pelicans vs. Rockets (Feb. 2, 2020)
- 245: Bucks vs. Pelicans (Feb. 4, 2020)
- 245: Rockets vs. Nets (Nov. 1, 2019)
- 245: Kings vs. Suns (April 3, 2009)
- 244: Suns vs. Warriors (March 15, 2009)
In the four games that make up the 245-club, the over has gone just 1-3, and expanding the sample doesn't help a whole lot either. Totals of 240 or higher have gone just 18-30 to the over since '05 — a 37.5% win rate.
There is, however, a slight caveat that happens to align with tonight's game: Of that 48-game sample, the five least popular overs (by percentage of bets) have gone 4-1. And getting just 26% of bets, tonight's is on pace to be the least of those least popular overs.
As for the sharps, they haven't exactly hammered the over, but they have made it clear that they don't think the total should go any lower than it is right now.
The opening number of 247.5 was brought down briefly to 247 — perhaps a result of the under's popularity — but two Sports Insights Bet Signals were triggered on the over soon after, indicating two instances of sharp action convincing sportsbooks to return to their original line.
It's also worth noting that the 26% of over bettors have generated 39% of money, meaning they're making bigger bets which are more likely to come from sharps.
So while they haven't taken much of a stand at the current number, look for pros to strike the over again if this total dips throughout the day.
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