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NBA Monday Betting System Pick: Exploiting Recent ATS Performances in Trail Blazers vs. Magic

NBA Monday Betting System Pick: Exploiting Recent ATS Performances in Trail Blazers vs. Magic article feature image

Todd Kirkland/Getty Images. Pictured: CJ McCollum #3 of the Portland Trail Blazers

  • The updated odds in Monday's matchup between the Portland Trail Blazers and Orlando Magic list the Magic as 7-point favorites to cover at home.
  • The Blazers are in the midst of a postseason push, but have lost three-straight and will be without Damian Lillard.
  • John Ewing previews how to bet this matchup using our Bet Labs database.

The Magic are 7-point favorites at home against the Blazers on Monday (7 p.m. ET). As the line indicates, Orlando and Portland are two teams trending in opposite directions.

The Magic have won five of their last six games and are currently the 7-seed in the East. The Blazers have lost three in a row and six of seven.

Orlando is expected to win, but will the Magic cover? Using historical betting data, let’s look at how savvy bettors can find value in tonight’s matchup.

Odds as of Monday at 10 a.m. ET and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

Trail Blazers vs. Magic NBA Betting System Pick

Contrarian bettors buy on bad news and sell on good. That often means taking road dogs, betting teams that failed to cover and fading those that cashed tickets in their previous game.

Wouldn’t you know it, combining these three strategies creates a winning betting system with a large sample and consistent year-to-year results.

Road underdogs have historically been undervalued as home-court advantage is overrated. An additional contrarian take is to bet teams off an against-the-spread (ATS) loss as underdogs (teams casual bettors will avoid) against an opponent off an ATS win as a favorite (teams the public will chase).

By zigging when the squares zag, bettors following this system have gone 982-814-37 (55%) ATS since 2005. A $100 bettor has returned a profit of $12,240 betting games matching this strategy.

Portland has struggled lately, but historical data suggest the smart play is on CJ McCollum & Co.

Betting system pick: Trail Blazers (+7)

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