NBA Player Prop Bets, Picks, Predictions: Expect Big Rebounding Night from 76ers’ Tony Bradley (Tuesday, March 23)
Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Philadelphia 76ers center Tony Bradley grabs a rebound during a recent game.
- There are six games on Tuesday's NBA schedule, with solid matchups on deck.
- Using the Action Labs prop tool, Brandon Anderson dishes out his three prop plays, including an angle on 76ers' big man Tony Bradley.
- Read below for his full analysis of each player.
It’s a big man kind of night here at The Action Network, featuring a little international flair as well. The wings and guards get all the love in today’s NBA, but Tuesday brings a night to celebrate the big fellas from New Zealand, Japan, and… checks notes… Florida.
Fine, not all international flair.
For those who are new to this article, we’ll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
Below, I have laid out three prop bets I’m playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Tony Bradley, Over 6.5 Rebounds (+115)
|76ers vs. Warriors||76ers -4|
|Time | TV||10 p.m. ET | TNT|
It’s been Tony Bradley — and not Dwight Howard — starting in place of Joel Embiid, with the MVP candidate out injured. That’s a bit surprising, but it seems the Philadelphia 76ers are happy with Howard’s energy off the bench and keeping him in that role.
Howard’s minutes have gone up, even in a substitute role, and Bradley is playing more of a bit role as the nominal starter. Even so, Bradley has averaged 19.3 minutes over the past five starts with Embiid out. Yet, he’s barely scoring.
Bradley had 14 points in one game, but had 10 points combined in the other four appearances, and he’s basically only going to score on wide-open dunks at the rim when they avail themselves. However, the one thing we know Bradley can definitely do well is rebound.
Bradley has at least six rebounds in each of his last five games, averaging 7.0 RPG during that stretch. He’s averaging a rebound every 2.8 minutes on the court lately, cleaning the glass in his few minutes out there.
Now, consider the latest opponent. The Golden State Warriors are one of the worst rebounding teams in the league, and they’re playing small with Kevon Looney and James Wiseman unavailable.
Bradley has a good chance of hitting the over on rebounds, even in limited minutes. We project him at 7.3 rebounds, but don’t go crazy here since the variance is high and even three or four fewer minutes of playing time is 20 percent for a player like Bradley.
Still, I like our chances enough to try the +115 odds at BetMGM and go for an aggressive win. I’d play at any plus number or as low as -110 odds.
Steven Adams, Over 1.5 Assists (-120)
|Lakers vs. Pelicans||Pelicans -5.5|
|Time | TV||7:30 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
If you picture the mountain of a man Steven Adams is, you’ve probably see him bodying up in the post and dominating the boards (or maybe getting kicked by Draymond Green), but the truth is that Adams has always been a nifty passer out of the post as well.
Adams has been showing off his passing ability lately, with at least two assists in five consecutive games, and he’s getting a few more touches as the Pelicans’ offense continues to grow and change.
Earlier this year, Brandon Ingram was dominating the assists and then Zion Williamson took over for awhile. Things are starting to balance out a bit more now, and perhaps that’s why Adams’ passing numbers have increased.
There’s another less obvious reason to like Adams here: his minutes. Adams has played 71 minutes his last two games, and you have to wonder if New Orleans is trying to showcase him a little bit ahead of the trade deadline to see if it can get any nibbles on its big man.
The extra minutes, along with Adams’ latent passing ability, make this prop a solid play here. We project Adams to play 31.3 minutes and finish with 2.2 assists He’s gone over this line in 23 of 39 games, hitting this prop 59% of the time even as his minutes and role have fluctuated all season long. I’ll play the over here to -145 odds.
Rui Hachimura, Under 1.5 3-Pointers (-210)
|Wizards vs. Knicks||Knicks -3|
|Time | TV||7:30 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
We’re back on Rui Hachimura again, with another opportunity to fade the youngster because the books still haven’t adjusted properly.
Hachimura had a couple of great games against the Milwaukee Bucks last week in one of those NBA duplexes. He finished with 29 points and 11 rebounds in the first game, then wound up with 22 points, seven rebounds and five assists in the second contest.
The key to those high-scoring games was Hachimura’s 3-point shooting. He took 14 shots behind the arc in two games, hitting seven of them, with both numbers among his highest all season. That makes sense when you consider the opponent.
That’s what the Bucks do — they allow a lot of 3-point attempts to the opponent’s worst shooters, at least they try to do so. Russell Westbrook hoisted a heap of threes in those games as well.
Take away that 7-of-14 showing against Milwaukee, though, and check out the rest of Hachimura’s season. In the other 32 games, he’s taken just 77 threes, only 2.4 attempts per game, and he’s made only 24 all season. That’s less than one make per game, and he’s under in 27 of 32 non-Bucks games.
That’s an 84% hit rate, easily good enough odds to merit drinking the juice here considering the opponent. The Knicks’ defense, which ranks top 10 in fewest 3-pointers allowed, is first in the league at 33.5% 3-point percentage allowed.
Go ahead and drink the juice here at -210. Hachimura has only two threes on five attempts in three games since the Bucks’ outings, so nothing has really changed here. That’s not in his arsenal, and it’s still worth fading at almost any number when the line is 1.5 threes for the game.