Tuesday’s Best NBA Player Props: Carmelo Anthony Is Back!
Justin Ford-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Carmelo Anthony
Betting on props can be one of the easiest ways to build your bankroll. Sportsbooks tend to offer lower limits and take less action on props than they do on games, so they don’t have as much incentive to post an accurate line.
That’s where our Player Prop tool comes in handy. We compare our industry-leading NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks to identify the best plays each day. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
Odds as of Tuesday afternoon. Check out PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
Last season, props with a Bet Quality of 10 posted a win rate of 60.31%, and props with a Bet Quality of nine won at a 58.82% clip.
As is the case with most sports, betting on unders proved to be more profitable than betting on overs last season:
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 10: 341-172 (66.47%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 9: 457-273 (62.6%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 8: 898-589 (60.39%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 7: 1447-1086 (57.13%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 6: 1992-1663 (54.95%)
Overall, if you just blind bet every under with a Bet Quality of 8 or higher, you would’ve won at a 62.1% clip on more than 2,700 bets.
Tonight’s props come from two of the slate’s four games:
- Golden State Warriors at Memphis Grizzlies: 8:00 p.m. ET
- Portland Trail Blazers at New Orleans Pelicans: 8:00 p.m. ET on NBA TV
Let’s jump in.
Blazers F Carmelo Anthony
THE PICK: Under 9.5 points (+100) [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
Melo is back! And not a moment too soon for the Blazers, who are so desperate for help at this point that, well, they are rostering Carmelo Anthony. The books know everyone is excited to see what Melo has left in the tank, and that spells opportunity for bettors fading him.
Anthony hasn’t played a professional basketball game in over a year, so we have no idea what shape he’s in, how much he’ll play, or how he’ll fit into the Portland system. Melo averaged 29.4 minutes in 10 Houston games last year and still scored single-digit points in six of them. He’ll never play that many minutes in his debut and looks like an excellent fade until we know more and see if he can actually still play.
Grab it at +100 or play to -120 as needed on the under.
Warriors F Eric Paschall
THE PICK: Under 18.5 points (+110) [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
Eric Paschall has been a breakout rookie star for the Warriors. Drafted in the second round, Paschall is practically a go-to player now with almost every Warrior you’d heard of before the season all out injured. Paschall scored 30 points last night and is getting a lot of media attention. All those Golden State media have to report on something, after all.
Despite all that attention, Paschall has only gone over 18.5 points five times in 13 games, and two of those were just barely at 19 and 20 points. Paschall can put up a big point total, but his median points are 15 and our model projects him at only 12.9 tonight. That makes him a slam dunk play at +110 and worth playing up to -125 with so much margin for error.
Grizzlies C Jonas Valanciunas
THE PICK: Over 14.5 points (-115) [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
Have you seen the Warriors play this year? My apologies, if you have. There are some entertaining young players, like Paschall, but the defense has been atrocious, especially near the rim. The Warriors rank dead last on defense and have been especially mashed by opposing big men.
Enter Jonas Valanciunas, who was created to eat in matchups like this. JV has scored double digits in all but one game this season, so that already puts him in range to hit the over most nights. Our models project Valanciunas at 18.6 points, a season-high in his best matchup yet. Play JV confidently up to -135.