Warriors vs. Rockets Sharp Report: Both Sides Drawing Smart Money at Different Prices

Warriors vs. Rockets Sharp Report: Both Sides Drawing Smart Money at Different Prices article feature image
Credit:

Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: James Harden and Andre Iguodala

  • The spread for tonight's Rockets-Warriors game has ping-ponged between Golden State +2 and -1 thanks to sharp action on both sides.
  • We break down the entire sharp betting pattern that's driven the line to its current number.

If you’ve stopped by The Action Network’s sharp reports in the past, you’ve probably come across plenty of situations in which sharp bettors forced line changes by hammering one side of a given game.

But sharps  — professional bettors with historical records of success — don’t always agree on everything. In fact, two-way sharp action is pretty common, and it seems to be taking place in tonight’s Warriors-Rockets Game 4 (9:30 p.m. ET, TNT).

The Rockets opened as a 2-point favorite at home when lines were posted Saturday night. Now, though, this game is down to a consensus pick’em, and some books are even favoring Golden State by a point. So what’s happened between then and now?

For starters, the Warriors are generating 68% of bets and dollars. But while that might create a liability for sportsbooks, it’s really not a big enough majority to cause major line movement. Instead, it looks like the adjustments have come as a result of professional money.

Early sharp bettors were all over the Warriors. Getting two points was too many for wiseguys, who triggered a Sports Insights Bet Signal in the form of a steam move on Golden State yesterday afternoon.

That drove some books down to Houston -1, which invited sharps on the other side to buy back what they believed to be a valuable number on the home team, starting a bit of a back and forth between pros in disagreement.

From there, Golden State drew another Bet Signal at +1.5, which was followed by two more moves from sharps on Houston at -1. Essentially, it looked as if oddsmakers had done their job in finding the sweet spot that draws heavy action to both sides.

That changed this afternoon, though, as late sharp bettors came down hard again on the Warriors at the price of +1.5, but this time the smart money kept flowing even as Golden State fell to a pick’em, causing a number of books to flip the minus sign onto the Dubs.

I bet you can guess what happened next. Sharps on Houston, who deemed -1 to be a valuable number, now had the chance to take the Rockets at a pick’em, or even +1 … and they did just that. Two more SI Bet Signals were triggered on Houston shortly after 4 p.m. ET, driving the line back to Rockets -1.

So has the line finally found its settling point, or will sharp Warriors bettors take the point being handed to them in the market? You can follow along with all of our NBA live odds here.