2019 NCAA Tournament Sharp Report: Pros Betting Kansas vs. Auburn, 2 Other Saturday Games

Mar 24, 2019 09:10 PM EDT
Credit:

Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Kansas Jayhawks forward Dedric Lawson (1).

  • Wiseguys are betting three March Madness games on Saturday, headlined by Maryland vs. LSU (12:10 p.m. ET on CBS).
  • Sharps are also getting down on Baylor vs. Gonzaga (7:10 p.m. ET on TBS) and Auburn vs. Kansas (9:40 p.m. ET on TBS).
  • Using the tools available at The Action Network, we analyze how the pros are betting each game.

Wiseguys stayed hot yesterday, cashing the Iowa spread and Tennessee under en route to a 2-1 Friday. Now sharps turn their attention to the pivotal Round of 32.

After analyzing Saturday’s 8-game NCAA Tournament slate using the betting tools available at Sports Insights and The Action Network, I’ve identified three games receiving sharp action from professional bettors.

All odds as of 1:30 a.m. ET on Saturday. As always consult our live odds and public money pages for the most up-to-date information.

Betting Terms to Know

Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.

Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.

Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.

Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.


Maryland vs. LSU

12:10 p.m. ET | CBS

Sharp angle: Maryland (moved from +2.5 to +2) and Under (moved from 147 to 145)

This East Region second-round early game is by far the most lopsided Saturday play. And of course, wiseguys are zigging while the public zags.

LSU (27-6) opened as a short 2-point favorite and more than 80% of bets are rushing to lay the points with the Tigers. However, despite this overwhelming support, the line has essentially remained frozen at LSU -2.

In the brief instances that it touched +2.5, it was quickly gobbled up by value-driven sharps. It’s even dipped to -1.5. This sharp line freeze/reverse line movement indicates liability on the Maryland (23-10).

The Terps also match two Bet Labs Pro systems: NCAA Tournament Contrarian (59.3% ATS since 2005) and NCAA Tournament Slow Paced Dogs (61.3% ATS).

Our very own Sean Koerner has the game pegged at LSU -0.5, practically a coin flip. (You can see Sean’s projected spread for every possible tournament matchup in our bracket simulator.)

Sharps are also betting this over/under.

The total opened at 147 and bets are split right down the middle, but more than 65% of dollars are on the under.

Using our Sports Insights Bet Signals, we tracked two steam moves, with Goodfellas hammering the Under 147.5 and Under 146.5. This overload of professional action forced oddsmakers to drop the line down to 145.


Baylor vs. Gonzaga

7:10 p.m. ET | TBS

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