North Carolina vs. Syracuse Betting Odds, Pick: Can Tar Heels Extend ACC Tournament Run?
Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images. Pictured: Brandon Robinson #4 and Garrison Brooks #15
- Updated betting odds for Wednesday's ACC Tournament game between North Carolina and Syracuse have the Tar Heels favored by 2.5 points, with a total of 150.
- After a disappointing regular season, UNC coasted through the first round of the tournament last night against Virginia Tech.
- Will the Tar Heels' ACC Tournament run continue tonight against the Orange? Check out our UNC vs. Syracuse pick below.
UNC vs. Syracuse Odds, Picks
- Spread: North Carolina -3
- Over/Under: 150
- Time: 9:30 p.m. ET
- TV: ESPN2
North Carolina pasted Virginia Tech last night in the first round tournament, something I did not see coming. Tar Heel star Cole Anthony said before the Duke game that UNC was playing like a top-10 team in the country, but frankly, I don’t buy it — not even after Tuesday’s victory.
Since the Tar Heels are one of the blue-blood programs, everyone will flock to them thinking they’ve turned their season around, which we’ve already seen in the early going: 84% of the spread tickets were backing UNC as of of 12 p.m. ET.
This gives us a great opportunity to bet the other side.
[Big Ten Tourney Promo! Bet $10 on Wednesday night’s Indiana-Nebraska game and win $10 for EVERY 3-pointer made.]
As I said yesterday, North Carolina is not a good shooting team, it ranks 300th in effective field goal percentage (eFG%), 292nd in 3-point percentage and 276th in 2-point percentage. Syracuse ranks inside the top 150 in almost every defensive category.
The one mismatch North Carolina has on Syracuse is offensive rebounding. In the lone matchup between these two teams at the Carrier Dome, North Carolina grabbed offensive rebounds at a 40.6% rate. I have no doubt that Jim Boeheim will make this a point of emphasis for his team this time around to keep the Tar Heel big men Armando Bacot and Garrison Brooks off the offensive glass.
Also in that first matchup, which the Tar Heels won, 92-79, on the road, UNC shot 42.3% from 3, led by Cole Anthony (7-of-11 from deep). But if you look closer at the season numbers for both the Tar Heels and Anthony, that performance was an anomaly.
Syracuse is the 23rd-most efficient offense according to KenPom. The Orange do not stand out in any one particular area, but Cuse ranks inside the top 150 in almost every metric. North Carolina’s defense struggles turning opponents over and defending behind the arc. Jim Boeheim is a good enough coach to preach that to his team and make sure they hold onto the ball and shoot a lot of 3s.
Elijah Hughes, Syracuse’s best player, has been upgraded to probable, and UNC has really struggled as a favorite this season (6-14 against the spread) — two more bits of good news for someone looking to fade the Tar Heels.
My model has Syracuse favored by -0.89, so I fine taking the Orange anything +3 or better.
Pick: Syracuse +3