Wednesday’s Sharp Report: What the Wiseguys Are Betting in Kentucky-Auburn
Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Bruce Pearl
Happy Valentine’s Day! Is your significant other forcing you to miss tonight’s games? Are you single and can’t wait for this disgusting day to be over? Cheer up. We have more 35 college hoops games on tap. Time to get down with our one true love: betting.
After analyzing all the betting data, here are the seven college hoops bets the professional players are focusing on tonight.
All info as of 5 p.m. ET
A few reminders:
- A really high bet percentage is usually a clear indicator of who public bettors (aka the guys who don’t do this for a living) are taking. And breaking news: The majority of public bettors aren’t successful over the long haul.
- To help locate which games the pros are on, focus on the money percentage metric. If a team is getting a much higher share of dollars compared to bets, that’s a good sign that the wiseguys are on them
- Don’t blindly bet games based on percentages. You also have to look at the line movement. One of the best sharp indicators is Reverse Line Movement: when the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the team the public is betting. Example: Duke is getting 75% of spread bets vs. North Carolina but you see the line move from Duke -1 to +1.5. That’s a sure sign the wiseguys are on UNC. Another sharp indicator is a Line Freeze: when you see heavy lopsided betting but the line doesn’t budge. This indicates liability and a reluctance to move the line and give sharps a better number. Example: Kansas is -7 against West Virginia and 70% of bets are on the Jayhawks, yet the line remains stagnant and doesn’t moved off of 7. That indicates sharp liability on the Mountaineers, with the books reluctant to give sharp contrarian bettors a +7.5 or +8.
Iowa-Michigan Under 146.5
6:30 p.m. ET
Sharps and squares are on completely different sides when it comes to this Big Ten total. 65% of bets are on the over, but it only accounts for 32% of dollars, indicating predominantly Average Joe money is banking on a high-scoring affair. Sharps got down hard on the under, triggering a pair of steam moves (Under 149, Under 147.5) and a reverse line move (147.5), all from CRIS. This is notable because CRIS is one of the sharpest offshore sportsbooks and there are no conflicting plays on the Over.
Mississippi State at Vanderbilt (-1.5)
7 p.m. ET
Mississippi State is 18-7 and getting 1.5 points against 9-16 Vanderbilt? What gives? As always, if it looks too good to be true, it is. Sixty-five percent of spread bets are on the Bulldogs, yet the line has moved toward Vandy (-1 to -1.5). Why would the books give public Bulldogs backers an extra half point? Because sharps steamed Vanderbilt, causing market-wide movement in their favor.
Oakland at Youngstown State (+5), Under 162
7 p.m. ET
The Wake and Rake Kingmaker PJ Walsh had his eye on this matchup all morning. In a classic Pros vs. Joes matchup, Youngstown State is only getting 26% of bets but the line has tanked in their direction. Sharps hit the home dog multiple times at SBG and 5Dimes, causing the market to move from +7 down to +5.
Wiseguys are also on the Under (34% bets, 43% dollars). Our Bet Signals picked up on a pair of steam moves at 165.5 and 164.5, which caused the market to drop the total all the way down to 162.
— Sports Insights (@SportsInsights) February 14, 2018
Indiana State (+1) at Drake
8 p.m. ET
Earlier today, Mark Gallant, the pride of Ipswich, highlighted how oddsmakers were caught off guard by an unexpected wave of sharp action on Larry Bird’s alma-mater. Only 31% of bets are on Indiana State, but the Sycamores are getting 57% of dollars — a massive bet vs. money discrepancy. Meanwhile, the line has moved big toward Indiana State (+3 to +1). This is a classic case of reverse line movement, indicating sharps pounded the road dog.
— The Action Network (@ActionNetworkHQ) February 14, 2018
Kentucky at Auburn (-9.5)
9 p.m. ET
The public sees powerhouse Kentucky getting big points and automatically considers it a lock. But sharps smell a rat. If nearly 70% of bets are on the Wildcats, why did the line move from Auburn -8.5 to -9.5? Because sharps are fading the trendy dog and expecting a double-digit Auburn win.
St. John’s at DePaul (+1)
9 p.m. ET
St. John’s has won three in a row, including two massive upsets over Duke and Villanova. As always, the public is overvaluing recent performance and pounding the Red Storm as a short road favorite. However, despite getting more than 80% of spread bets, St. John’s has fallen from -2 to -1, indicating sharp reverse line movement on Depaul. The wiseguys hit Depaul +2 at CRIS this morning, causing a pair of bet signals that forced the entire market to adjust.
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Cover Photo via Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports