Wake and Rake: Sharps Eyeing a Total in Wednesday Tourney Betting
Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports
While there’s still one full day standing between fans and the Big Dance, it’s not stopping recreational bettors from getting down, and getting down early, on tonight’s mixed bag of NCAA Tournament First Four, NIT and CBI action.
It’s a very interesting time on the sports-betting calendar, as you’ll see public money impact game like tonight’s NC Central-Texas Southern First Four matchup (6:40 p.m. ET) that normally wouldn’t get a serious thought from public bettors.
However, that’s exactly what we’ve seen so far in early Wednesday betting. At first look, line movement appears to tell a simple story, but the tools at The Action Network reveal sneaky wiseguy buyback has already made a play on this matchup.
Bookmaker.eu opened the total for tonight’s NC Central-Texas Southern game at 148 and, according to our percentage of money data, 72% of all dollars wagered have taken the under. Considering the line has followed the money down to 146.5, it would appear that early sharp action is on the under.
Doing my best Lee Corso impression, “Not so fast!” A look at the line history shows that this total touched 146 at one point, and that’s where professionals pounced. Based on our Bet Signals — available to all Sports Insights Sportsbook Insider Pro subscribers — wiseguys bought back the over at 146, triggering a Steam Move that has pushed the market consensus back up to 146.5.
I’ve touched on this a few times in the past, but having the data to dig deeper than simply relying on opening and current lines is the key to properly diagnosing what is truly driving line movement across the market.
Top Photo: North Carolina Central Eagles forward Pablo Rivas (13) dunks the ball in the second half against the UC Davis Aggies in the first four of the 2017 NCAA Tournament; credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports