Massive Sharp vs. Public Disagreement in Early Hoops Betting
Feb 10, 2018; Columbus, OH, USA; Ohio State Buckeyes head coach Chris Holtmann shows his frustration during the second half against the Iowa Hawkeyes at Value City Arena. Mandatory Credit: Joe Maiorana-USA TODAY Sports
Since debuting this column, the majority of games I’ve highlighted have focused on smaller college basketball schools. In general, oddsmakers have less information about these teams than those in power conferences, leading to softer lines that can be exploited by knowledgeable bettors.
However, wiseguys have shifted focus by making a move on one of the most popular games of the day, clearly taking advantage of misguided public action.
According to our number of bets data, tonight’s Ohio State-Penn State matchup is the most heavily-bet game of a deep college basketball slate. Not only is it generating the biggest handle, it’s also attracting very lopsided action from recreational bettors. At the time of publication, 77% of spread tickets and 89% of dollars wagered have come down on Ohio State.
While the public can’t get enough of the Buckeyes, sharp bettors have pounced on the Nittany Lions, moving the line from a pick’em to Penn State -1. Our Bet Signals agree, triggering three separate Reverse Line Moves on Penn State, revealing that sharp money has picked off the Nittany Lions multiple times, specifically when this matchup was available at a pick’em.