Minnesota-Purdue Betting Preview: Will the Boilermakers’ Rise Continue?
Sandra Dukes-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Purdue Boilermakers guard Carsen Edwards (3).
We’ve finally reached the day of the big game — the pinnacle of all sports.
Minnesota traveling to No. 17 Purdue in a Big Ten battle. What, you expected me to mention Rams-Patriots? Let’s breakdown where the value stands in an underrated conference showdown.
>> All odds as of Saturday night. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NCAAB odds and track your bets.
Betting Odds: Minnesota Golden Gophers at Purdue Boilermakers
- Spread: Purdue -11.5
- Over/Under: 148
- Time: Noon ET
- TV: Big Ten Network
The Boilermakers (13-8 against the spread) have covered in each of their past six games, blazing past Penn State in overtime in their last matchup. The Golden Gophers (10-11 ATS) aren’t struggling themselves, either, racking up three straight covers.
Purdue has notched nine outright wins in its past 10 games via their red-hot perimeter attack, racking up the second-highest 3-point clip (40.2%) in Big Ten play. Carsen Edwards (24.9 points per game), a Naismith Player of the Year candidate, hit 8-of-15 3-pointers en route to 38 points in the victory over the Nittany Lions on Thursday.
But Minnesota’s conference opponents have strung together the fourth-lowest scoring rate (26.3%) from the perimeter while combining to amass the fourth-most 3-point attempts (31.8%). Golden Gophers point guard Dupree McBrayer won’t be able to shutdown Edwards, but his on-ball defense should limit Edwards’ prowess for creating off the dribble drive.
Richard Pitino’s unit has also generated the 103rd-highest block rate (10.6%) in the country. With the 6-foot-10 Daniel Oturu back in the rotation after missing last Sunday’s win over Iowa with a shoulder injury, expect the Golden Gophers to keep Purdue’s already limited two-point offense from attacking the rim.
At the other end, Minnesota’s offensive execution will be critical in keeping the Boilermakers from controlling the pace via their methodical tempo. It boasts the sixth-highest free-throw rate (46.1%) in Division I while Purdue has let up the conference’s highest rate (45.1%) in that department amid their Big Ten slate.
The 6-foot-7 Jordan Murphy (15.1 ppg) has produced the eighth-highest free-throw rate (83.8%) in the nation, and he’ll be able to find room in the low-post vs. the Boilermakers’ small-ball lineup. He’s averaging 19.0 points, 14.3 rebounds and 4.3 assists per game over his past three contests as well.
According to our Bet Labs data, the Golden Gophers are 3-1 (75%) ATS as an underdog in conference play this season, and this spread is too large despite the Boilermakers dominance of late.
Bet on Pitino’s crew covering in West Lafayette, and I’d lean towards the under or passing with both squads presenting slower paces and a top-85 Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, respectively.
THE PICK: Minnesota +11.5