While some mid-major conferences begin their tournaments this week, leagues like the SEC and Big East are still finishing out their regular seasons.
Auburn is looking to bounce back against Texas A&M, while banged-up Georgetown will try to keep it close against Creighton.
College Basketball Odds & Picks
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Texas A&M at Auburn
- Spread: Auburn -12.5
- Over/Under: 133
- Time: 7 p.m. ET
- TV: ESPN2
Auburn (24-5, 13-16 ATS) looks to right the ship coming off a tough loss at Rupp Arena against SEC bottom dweller Texas A&M (14-14, 12-16 ATS) at Auburn Arena.
Most people think of Auburn as a fast-paced team, but the Tigers are only the 152nd in pace at 68.8, according to KenPom, while Texas A&M plays one of slowest paces in the country at 64.1, ranking 339th. The only way Texas A&M has a chance at keeping this game close is to slow down the pace and limit Auburn’s offensive opportunities.
Texas A&M is also one of the worst offensive teams in the country and it is a miracle the Aggies are .500 they way they are shooting the ball. Texas A&M ranks 329h in eFG% and 339th in 3P%, while Auburn ranks above average in defensive eFG% (72nd in the country) and defensive 3P% (121st in the country).
Texas A&M also is turning the ball over at a 21% rate, which is what has lead to a very poor 99.6 offensive efficiency (ranking 230th in the country), while Auburn has defensive efficiency of 95.0 (ranking 53rd in the country).
Moral of the story is Texas A&M will struggle to break 60 in this game, so the Aggies will have to slow the pace down as much as possible to have a chance.
This play is against Texas A&M’s anemic offense. My model projects a 70-57 win for Auburn, so I think there is value on the under of 133 in this game.
Pick: Under 133
Georgetown at Creighton
- Spread: Creighton -11
- Over/Under: 152.5
- Time: 8 p.m. ET
- TV: FSN
Creighton (22-7, 16-12 ATS) returns home after having its five-game winning streak snapped by St. John’s on Sunday to face a reeling Georgetown (15-14, 14-15 ATS) team that has lost four straight games.
Creighton was the hottest team in country during that streak, averaging 85.6 PPG, 1.18 points per possession, and shooting 45.97% from behind the arc. What happened at St. John’s on Sunday was bound to happen at some point for Creighton as no team can keep up those numbers for an extended period of time.
Georgetown’s season is falling apart at the moment, mainly due to injuries to its two best players. At the time of writing this, Mac McClung and Omer Yurtseven are both unlikely to play against Creighton, leaving Georgetown with only six scholarship players left on their roster. According to my model, the loss of Yurtseven and McClung affects the line by 4.89 points.
Creighton’s offense against Georgetown’s defense is huge mismatch in this game. Creighton’s eFG% and 3P% both rank 18th in the country, while Georgetown’s defensive eFG% ranks 224th and their 3P% ranks 302nd in the country. Not to mention Creighton shoots on average 24.8 3-pointers a game.
Creighton also only turns the ball over at a 16.2% rate (29th in the country) and only allows a 7% steal percentage (15th in the country).
Georgetown is the 33rd ranked KenPom team in offensive efficiency at 111.8, but over the last three games in which Yurtseven and McClung haven’t played, Georgetown’s offensive efficiency is a measly 93.8. Creighton isn’t a great defensive team with rankings above 100 in most defensive categories, but the loss of Georgetown's two best players will handcuff them offensively.
My model has Creighton -14.42, so I think there is plenty of value of Creighton to win and cover the 11 points.
Pick: Creighton -11
