CBB Sharp Report: Wiseguys Betting Michigan-Illinois, 2 Other Thursday Games

CBB Sharp Report: Wiseguys Betting Michigan-Illinois, 2 Other Thursday Games article feature image
Credit:

Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Aaron Jordan and Romeo Langford

  • Wiseguys are betting three College Basketball games on Thursday night, headlined by Michigan-Illinois (8 p.m. ET on Fox Sports 1).
  • Sharps are also getting down on Hofstra-William & Mary (7 p,m. ET) and Penn State-Nebraska (9 p,m. ET on ESPN2).
  • Using the tools available at The Action Network, we analyze how the pros are betting each game.

Wiseguys failed to secure reservations in Green Dot City last night, going 2-3 on their Wednesday plays. They'll look to bounce back tonight by focusing on conference underdogs.

Historically, conference dogs bark the loudest, as the built-in familiarity and rivalry aspects level the playing field and lead to tighter games.

After examining today’s stacked 51-game college basketball slate using the betting tools available at Sports Insights and The Action Network, I’ve identified three games that sharps are targeting on Thursday night, starting at 7, 8 and 9 p.m. ET.


>> All odds as of 3:15 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time college basketball odds and track your bets


Betting Terms to Know

Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.

Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.

Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.

Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.

Full Sports Betting Glossary 

Sharp Betting 101: How to Track Professional Betting Action


Hofstra @ William & Mary

7 p.m. ET

Sharp angle: William & Mary (moved from +4.5 to +2.5)

Apparently sharps are big fans of old Cameron Diaz movies. There's something about Mary … and William.

On paper this looks like a huge mismatch, as Hofstra boasts an impressive 13-3 record while William & Mary sits at just 7-9.

This game opened at Hofstra -4.5. Currently 56% of bets are on the road favorite, but 58% of dollars are on the home dog. That smart money discrepancy in favor of William & Mary has dropped the line down to -2.5. Some books are even posting -2.

The Tribe also match a profitable Bet Labs PRO system, Poor ATS vs. Great ATS (55.7% ATS since 2005).



Michigan @ Illinois

8 p.m. ET | Fox Sports 1

Sharp angle: Illinois (line has remained at +9)

Sharps are fearless, but they aren't stupid. They bet games based on value, and the more disgusting a play looks, the more value it probably offers.

Take this Big Ten showdown for example. In the most lopsided bet game of the night, more than 80% of bettors are laying the points with powerhouse Michigan (15-0, ranked 2nd overall) against conference cellar dweller Illinois (4-11).

However, despite receiving overwhelming public support, the Wolverines have remained frozen at -9. Typically, heavy betting would push the number to -10 or -11, but the lack of line movement toward Michigan is evidence of sportsbooks having liability on the home dog.

Using our Sports Insights Bet Signals, we noticed a strong reverse line move on Illinois +9.5 without any conflicting plays (or buyback) on Michigan.

The Illini are getting only 19% of bets but 38% of dollars, and that minority backing fits them into the profitable Bet Labs PRO system, Fade the Public in Big Conferences (57.3% ATS since 2005).



Penn State @ Nebraska

9 p.m. ET | ESPN2

Sharp angle: Penn State (line has remained at +10.5)

Sharps are staying up late to sweat the Nittany Lions in this one.

Nebraska is 11-4 and a favorite on its home court. However, despite receiving 74% of spread bets, the Cornhuskers haven't moved off the opening spread of -10.5. In fact, some books dropped briefly down to -10 before leveling back out at the opening number.

This sharp line freeze — with a hint of reverse line movement — indicates sharp action on Penn State (7-8) as books are reluctant to hand out additional points to sharp dog backers.

The Lions are also in a profitable historical spot. They're road conference dogs on a big spread and fit the Bet Labs PRO system, Poor ATS vs. Good ATS teams (59.2% ATS since 2005).

About the Author
Josh graduated from the University of Vermont in 2009 with a degree in English and History. He has worked at Sports Insights since 2011 as Customer Service Manager and Betting Hangout Host. He joined the Action Network in 2017.

Follow Josh Appelbaum @Josh_Insights on Twitter/X.

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