Wiseguys failed to secure reservations in Green Dot City last night, going 2-3 on their Wednesday plays. They'll look to bounce back tonight by focusing on conference underdogs.
Historically, conference dogs bark the loudest, as the built-in familiarity and rivalry aspects level the playing field and lead to tighter games.
After examining today’s stacked 51-game college basketball slate using the betting tools available at Sports Insights and The Action Network, I’ve identified three games that sharps are targeting on Thursday night, starting at 7, 8 and 9 p.m. ET.
>> All odds as of 3:15 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time college basketball odds and track your bets
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.
Sharp Betting 101: How to Track Professional Betting Action
Hofstra @ William & Mary
7 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: William & Mary (moved from +4.5 to +2.5)
Apparently sharps are big fans of old Cameron Diaz movies. There's something about Mary … and William.
On paper this looks like a huge mismatch, as Hofstra boasts an impressive 13-3 record while William & Mary sits at just 7-9.
This game opened at Hofstra -4.5. Currently 56% of bets are on the road favorite, but 58% of dollars are on the home dog. That smart money discrepancy in favor of William & Mary has dropped the line down to -2.5. Some books are even posting -2.
The Tribe also match a profitable Bet Labs PRO system, Poor ATS vs. Great ATS (55.7% ATS since 2005).
Michigan @ Illinois
8 p.m. ET | Fox Sports 1
Sharp angle: Illinois (line has remained at +9)
Sharps are fearless, but they aren't stupid. They bet games based on value, and the more disgusting a play looks, the more value it probably offers.
Take this Big Ten showdown for example. In the most lopsided bet game of the night, more than 80% of bettors are laying the points with powerhouse Michigan (15-0, ranked 2nd overall) against conference cellar dweller Illinois (4-11).
However, despite receiving overwhelming public support, the Wolverines have remained frozen at -9. Typically, heavy betting would push the number to -10 or -11, but the lack of line movement toward Michigan is evidence of sportsbooks having liability on the home dog.
Using our Sports Insights Bet Signals, we noticed a strong reverse line move on Illinois +9.5 without any conflicting plays (or buyback) on Michigan.
The Illini are getting only 19% of bets but 38% of dollars, and that minority backing fits them into the profitable Bet Labs PRO system, Fade the Public in Big Conferences (57.3% ATS since 2005).
Penn State @ Nebraska
9 p.m. ET | ESPN2
Sharp angle: Penn State (line has remained at +10.5)
Sharps are staying up late to sweat the Nittany Lions in this one.
Nebraska is 11-4 and a favorite on its home court. However, despite receiving 74% of spread bets, the Cornhuskers haven't moved off the opening spread of -10.5. In fact, some books dropped briefly down to -10 before leveling back out at the opening number.
This sharp line freeze — with a hint of reverse line movement — indicates sharp action on Penn State (7-8) as books are reluctant to hand out additional points to sharp dog backers.
The Lions are also in a profitable historical spot. They're road conference dogs on a big spread and fit the Bet Labs PRO system, Poor ATS vs. Good ATS teams (59.2% ATS since 2005).
