CBB Sharp Report: Pros Betting Kansas-Texas, 2 Other Tuesday Games
Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Texas Longhorns guard Matt Coleman III and teammates
- Wiseguys are betting three of the biggest college basketball games on Tuesday, headlined by Kansas-Texas (7 p.m. ET on ESPN).
- Sharps are also betting Wisconsin-Nebraska (8 p.m. ET on BTN) and Ohio State-Michigan (9 p.m. ET on ESPN2).
- Using the tools available at The Action Network, we analyze how pros are betting all three games.
Sharp bettors enter every day with a clean slate. They bet based on analytics and value, never letting bias or the allure of a big game force them into betting a specific way.
Some nights, pros might target small-school showdowns. On others, like tonight, they get down on the most popular matchups. If the edge is there, they fire away.
After analyzing Tuesday’s college basketball action using the betting tools available at Sports Insights and The Action Network, I’ve identified three marquee games that pros are targeting, with start times of 7, 8 and 9 p.m. ET.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.
>> All odds, percentages and signals as of 2:30 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time college basketball odds and track your bets.
Kansas @ Texas
7 p.m. ET | ESPN
Sharp angle: Texas (moved from +1 to -1.5)
Sharps woke up this morning, took one look at the board, smiled and did their best Matthew McConaughey impression: “Alright, alright, alright.”
On paper, this line movement makes zero sense. Kansas (16-4, ranked 11th overall), opened as a short, 1-point road favorite against Texas (11-9, unranked). The Jayhawks are receiving 75% of spread bets, yet the line has completely flipped to Texas -1.5.
In situations like these, recreational bettors would double down on Kansas, knowing they can now get the Jayhawks at a better number. However, seasoned wiseguys know that this dog-to-favorite reverse line movement is a clear indication that the book took some heavy smart money on the Longhorns.
Using our Sports Insights Bet Signals, we tracked five separate steam and reverse line moves, with pros hammering Texas three times at +1 and twice more at a pick’em. This overload of smart money moved the Longhorns all the way to -1.5. We haven’t seen a single conflicting play (or buyback) on Kansas.
Many sharps might be bypassing the spread in favor of the Longhorns moneyline, as they match the profitable Bet Labs PRO system, Moneyline Home Teams (72%, +68.39 units since 2005).
Wisconsin @ Nebraska
8 p.m. ET | BTN
Sharp angle: Nebraska (moved from -1.5 to -3)
Recreational bettors don’t know which way to go with this Big Ten spread, but wiseguys have made up their minds. They’ll be shucking corn all night long.
Nebraska (13-7, unranked) opened as a short 1.5-point home favorite against visiting Wisconsin (14-6, ranked 24th overall). Spread bets are split down the middle, with a slight edge to the Badgers (52%). However, the line has moved bigly toward the Cornhuskers (-1.5 to -3, with some books even posting -3.5).
In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the betting is even. So what caused this big movement?
As always, follow the money.
According to our Sports Insights betting percentages, Nebraska is receiving only 48% of bets but a whopping 78% of dollars. This indicates that heavy smart money from respected players is laying the points, not grabbing them.
As was the case with Texas, sharps might also be betting Nebraska to win straight-up, as it also matches the Bet Labs PRO system, Moneyline Home Teams (72%, +68.39 units since 2005).
Ohio State @ Michigan
9 p.m. ET | ESPN2
Sharp angle: Ohio State (moved from +10 to +8.5)
Recreational bettors fall in love with win-loss records and rankings. Sportsbooks know this and will shade line accordingly, forcing public players to take overpriced numbers on the most popular teams.
This Big Ten showdown is a perfect example. In one of the most lopsided games of the night, Michigan (19-1, ranked 5th overall) opened as a 10-point home favorite against Ohio State (13-6, unranked).
However, despite 80% of bets laying the points, the Wolverines have fallen from -10 to -8.5. This peculiar line movement was caused by sharps hammering the Buckeyes +9.5, triggering a pair of steam and reverse line moves.
Ohio State is getting only 20% of bets but 55% of dollars, further evidence of big sharp wagers in its favor. The Buckeyes also match three different Bet Labs PRO systems, including Fade the Public in Big Conferences (57.1% ATS since 2005).