Sharps have been betting college hoops since day one, but they know the season really starts now. With football winding down and conference play beginning, we're entering the best time of year to bet underdogs and go contrarian.
That was on display last night, as wiseguys cashed two of their three plays (WVU +4.5 and UNC Under 152.5) to end the night in Green Dot City.
After examining today’s massive 58-game college basketball slate using the betting tools available at Sports Insights and The Action Network, I’ve identified three games that pros are betting on Thursday night, all starting at 7 p.m. ET.
>> All odds as of 3 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time college basketball odds and track your bets
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.
Sharp Betting 101: How to Track Professional Betting Action
NC State @ Miami (Florida)
7 p.m. ET | ESPNU
Sharp angle: Miami (moved from +3 to +2.5)
Sharps see Miami (8-4) in the same spot they saw West Virginia last night: an unranked home conference dog on a short spread against a superior opponent that's primed for a letdown.
NC State is 12-1 and ranked 18th overall, so of course nearly 75% of bets are laying the points with the Wolfpack. Despite the lopsided betting, however, we've seen NC State fall from -3 to -2.5. In fact, it even touched -1.5 at one point.
Why would the oddsmakers drop the line to make it easier for public bettors to cover?
Because they got hit with an overload of smart money on the Hurricanes.
Using our Sports Insights Bet Signals, we noticed three steam and reverse line moves on Miami +3, without a single conflicting play on NC State.
The Hurricanes are getting only 27% of bets but 64% of dollars — giving them great contrarian value in a heavily bet game, plus a massive smart money discrepancy.
Penn State @ Michigan
7 p.m. ET | ESPN
Sharp angle: Penn State (moved from +11.5 to +11)
The Wolverines boast an undefeated 13-0 record and are ranked 2nd overall in the country. Who cares that they're laying double digits? Michigan all day!
Not so fast, say the sharps.
In the most lopsided game of the night, nearly 85% of bets are taking the home favorite Wolverines to win in a blowout. However, we've seen this line fall from Michigan -11.5 to -11.
The fact that the overwhelming public betting hasn't increased Michigan's point spread signals sharp reverse line movement on Penn State (7-6), as books are worried about their liability on the road dog.
The Nittany Lions are also in a profitable historical spot, as they match three Bet Labs PRO systems: NCAAB Betting Against the Public (68% ATS since 2005), Fade the Public in Big Conferences (57% ATS) and Underdogs on ATS Losing Streaks (56% ATS).
Quinnipiac @ Manhattan
7 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: Over (moved from 124.5 at 126)
One big mistake recreational bettors make is focusing on big name teams and only betting games that they can watch on TV. Sharps don't discriminate. When they see value, they pounce. It doesn't matter how small the schools are.
This MAAC over is perfect example.
The total opened at an exceptionally low 124.5. We tracked two big steam moves on the over, which pushed the line up to 126. We haven't seen any conflicting under moves (or buyback).
Currently, 67% of bets are on the over, so on the surface, this looks like a "public" over. However, we've tracked only 322 bets on this game, meaning most Average Joes aren't wasting any time with it.
Instead, that 67% is more likely made up of sharp bettors who have an edge — as indicated by the 76% of dollars they've generated — not casual bettors simply looking for action.
