CBB Sharp Report: Pros Betting Duke-Virginia Tech, 2 Other Tuesday Games
Duke Blue Devils head coach Mike Krzyzewski. Credit: Rob Kinnan-USA TODAY Sports
- Wiseguys are betting three college basketball games tonight, headlined by Duke-Virginia Tech (7 p.m. ET on ESPN).
- Sharps are also getting down on Saint Louis-VCU (7:30 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network) and Texas A&M-LSU (9 p.m. ET on ESPN2).
- Using the tools available at The Action Network, we analyze how pros are betting each game.
Wiseguys started the week off in Green Dot City last night, going 2-1 with their Monday plays. Sharps will look to pick their spots and grind out another winning day on Tuesday. Once again, they’ll maximize their edge by focusing on undervalued over/unders and buy-low, sell-high spread plays.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.
Duke @ Virginia Tech
7 p.m. ET | ESPN
Sharp angle: Under (moved from 146.5 to 143)
In the most heavily bet game of the night, sharps and squares (casual bettors who bet for fun) seem to be on the same page when it comes to this ACC over/under.
Duke is the 5th-highest scoring team in the country (85.5 PPG), but it is missing Zion Williamson (21.6 PPG). Virginia Tech will also be missing one of its top scorers in Justin Robinson (14.4 PPG).
This total opened at 146.5. Currently 69% of bets and 75% of dollars are taking the under. We noticed sharps hammer the Under 146.5 and then hit the Under 145.5, triggering a pair of steam moves that forced oddsmakers to drop the line all the way down to 143.
This under also fits a profitable historical edge. According to Bet Labs, when two “good shooting” teams (field goal percentage of at least 45%) go head-to-head, the under has produced +194.39 units since 2005.
Saint Louis @ VCU
7:30 p.m. ET | CBS Sports Network
Sharp angle: Saint Louis (moved from +10.5 to +9.5)
Pros and Joes are on completely opposite sides of this Atlantic 10 showdown.
VCU boasts an impressive 21-6 record while visiting Saint Louis sits at 17-10. Casual bettors are mesmerized by VCU’s won-loss record (plus it is at home). As a result, the public has no worries about laying big points with the Rams.
Not the wiseguys. They’re buying low on the Billikens.
Despite receiving nearly 70% of bets, VCU has fallen from -10.5 to -9.5. Why would the books drop the VCU line to make it easier for public bettors to cash? Because pro players loaded up on Saint Louis, first hitting SLU +11 and then again at +10.
Saint Louis is receiving only 32% of bets but 50% of dollars — further evidence of smart money in its favor.
Texas A&M @ LSU
9 p.m. ET | ESPN2
Sharp angle: Under (moved from 153 to 148.5)
This under is so sharp that wiseguys cut their fingers and needed Band-Aids when placing their bets at the ticket window.
The total opened at 153. Currently 76% of bets and 85% of dollars are taking the Under. This overwhelming combination of public and smart money created big liability for the sportsbooks, forcing them to drop the total bigly.
Using our Sports Insights Bet Signals, we noticed five separate steam and reverse line moves on the Under, with sharps hammering the Under 153 twice, Under 152.5, Under 151 and Under 149.5.
The fact that wiseguys kept hitting the under despite the line getting worse indicates supreme Goodfella confidence.